606
FXUS64 KMEG 210933
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
433 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A ridge of high pressure will bring mainly rain free weather to
the Mid-South through Saturday night with temperatures rising
into the middle to upper 90s over the weekend. These very hot
temperatures combined with a humid airmass may result in heat
index values reaching or exceeding 105 degrees in some locations
Sunday through Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase by early next week. A cold front will bring the best
chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region by
Wednesday, with slightly cooler temperatures for late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 430 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

GOES-16 satellite trends show an upper-level ridge centered over
Middle Tennessee while a deep upper-level trough extends along
the West Coast of the U.S. early this morning. This is resulting
in warm, humid, and rain free conditions across the Mid-South
with temperatures in the lower 70s as of 4 AM CDT.

The aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue to retrograde
west to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. 925 mb
temperatures increasing to around 26C should translate to
afternoon highs in the middle to perhaps upper 90s across the
Mid-South. Rain chances are expected to remain low at best during
this period with the presence of a capping inversion between
800-700 mb.

Short-term models indicate the potential for dewpoints to pool
especially along and north of I-40 on Sunday with a back door
cold front dropping into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night into
Monday. Forecast dewpoints were adjusted to a 50/50 blend of the
NBM and NBM 90th percentile to reflect short-term trends. These
high dewpoints combined with temperatures in the middle to upper
90s in some locations may result in heat index values rising to or
above 105 degrees. Heat Advisories may become necessary between
Sunday to next Tuesday across portions of the Mid-South. Isolated
to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to
be mostly confined to areas near the Kentucky border and along the
Tennessee River Sunday into Sunday night. Very weak shear
combined with surface-based CAPE values may result in a few
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms mainly during peak heating
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Long-term operational and ensemble model trends still show the
upper-level ridge retrograding to the Southwest U.S. into late
next week placing the Lower Mississippi Valley under northwest
flow aloft. Consequently, showers and thunderstorms will increase
by early next week. The best chance for measurable rain will be
on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. This will
bring a temporary break from the very hot temperatures for late
next week.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

High pressure continues to build in from the east resulting in
light easterly winds. BR conditions may develop at MKL near
sunrise under clear skies and calm winds. Cirrus/fair weather
clouds will continue to clear out before return flow settles in.

DNM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM