Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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804 FXUS64 KMEG 180233 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 933 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A narrow ridge extending from southeast Texas into the Wisconsin will broaden as it shifts east over the next several days keeping us clear and dry. Temperatures will be a bit above normal. The next chance of rain will be early next week ahead of a cold front moving out of the Plains. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Calm and warmer weather is expected throughout the week. Highs are forecast to reach into the middle to upper 80s with lows around 60. No precipitation chances are expected until next week. Confidence is increasing for early morning fog for tonight and tomorrow night. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A unique upper pattern currently presents itself across the CONUS with a deep trough over the mountain west and a low-latitude Rex Block over the eastern CONUS. The blocking residing over Appalachia will prevent any energy associated with the western trough from moving longitudinally over the next several days. Only until the weak upper low creating this block fills in will we have the chance to regain a more progressive upper level pattern. In the meantime, expect to see a somewhat persistent forecast with drier and warmer conditions in general. Today`s weather is currently proceeding according to the persistent warming and drying pattern explained above. Highs have reached into the middle to upper 80s today across the entire region thanks to sunny skies. Throughout the week similar conditions are expected with lows reaching into the low 60s and highs into the 80s. No significant precipitation is expected. Eventually the eastern blocking will be absorbed by the background westerlies and precipitation will return to the forecast. Current ensembles (GEFS/ECMWF) show this breakdown occurring over the weekend with some PoPs appearing by Monday, but this is too far out to provide any more details. The most notable headline over the next couple of days is fog. Francine drenched the region with over 3" of rain, allowing for very high soil moisture. With clear skies, radiative cooling will likely condense some of this moisture as it evaporates and pools near the surface overnight. Therefore, confidence is relatively high in fog tonight and tomorrow night across much of the region. However, the rest of the week still offers chances at seeing fog, but confidence is not currently high enough to mention at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR. As winds go calm, skies remain clear, and already an saturated environment will be present, fog with reduced vsbys is expected to form over JBR/MKL/TUP around 08Z, lifting shortly after sunrise. Light predominantly northeast winds will prevail through the TAF period. AEH && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...AEH