Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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415 FXUS64 KMEG 042345 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 645 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Warm and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow as a few systems track across the Mid-South. As thunderstorms push across the Mid-South this afternoon and into evening a few strong to severe storms may be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding. A cold front will move through Thursday decreasing our rain chances and cooling temperatures slightly. This lapse in rainfall will not last long, however, as another low pressure system brings showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The Mid-South will remain under weak quasi-zonal flow through tomorrow as an unsettled weather pattern persists over the area. A negatively tilted upper trough currently centered over the Iowa and Missouri border continues to churn east giving lift to two different MCVs. The first MCV`s remnants are currently spreading very light showers along the Tennessee river. The second and perhaps more pronounced MCV is currently churning over Little Rock`s area, over central Arkansas. This second MCV will continue making its trek east, entering into our area later this afternoon. This MCV will move into northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee bringing showers and thunderstorms along with it. These thunderstorms will have the potential to become strong to severe with primary threats of damaging winds, large hail, and localized heavy rainfall. This convection will be entering into an environment of forecast surface based CAPE values of 1500-1800 J/kg, PWATs around 1.8", and 0-6 bulk wind shear values around 25 kts. Though severe parameters have decreased slightly as time has drawn closer and through this evening, a conditional threat of severe weather still exists across the Mid- South. Already saturated soils and elevated rivers and streams may be at a higher risk for flooding through tomorrow evening. Come tomorrow morning, another embedded upper trough looks to churn in and center over Arkansas pushing what looks to be another rotating MCV across the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow`s end as this upper trough pushes across the Middle Mississippi Valley. A few thunderstorms could pulse up along and north of the Tennessee and Mississippi border tomorrow afternoon into evening producing damaging winds and some possible large hail. Surface based CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg and around 30 kts of 0-6 bulk wind shear will be present. A cold front will finally move through Thursday afternoon, diminishing rainfall chances and decreasing relative humidity. Northwest flow and surface high pressure will follow this leading cold front creating a pleasant end to the workweek and beginning of the weekend. This lull in precipitation won`t last long, however, as another low pressure system and attendant cold front looks to push showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South Saturday evening and into Monday morning. The good news is, the Climate Prediction Center has temperatures below normal well into mid June. AEH && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 This is very much a persistence forecast with a decaying MCS approaching from the ArkLaTex overnight, eventually transitioning to more isolated showers and thunderstorms by mid afternoon. Given the sporadic nature of all potential convection, no prevailing precip was added to any TAFs, just VCSH/TS. There may be a brief period early Wednesday morning with some low clouds (likely MVFR) that should scatter out by noon at the latest, but VFR should prevail for the most part. South/southwest winds 8-10 kts look fairly persistent with potentially higher gusts in the afternoon. CAD && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH AVIATION...CAD