Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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892 FXUS64 KMEG 120340 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1040 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Surface high pressure across the Middle Mississippi River Valley and a trough aloft will keep us mild and dry tomorrow. A dry airmass and light winds will result in efficient radiational cooling tonight. Morning lows will range from the middle 50s to near 60 degrees across most of the Midsouth. The trough will shift east late tomorrow resulting in warming conditions Thursday and Friday. The weekend looks hot and dry. Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees with high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. Cooler temperatures and a chance of rain return early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the end of the workweek as high pressure remains over the area. As we head into the weekend, temperatures look to skyrocket into the upper 90s with some areas possibly reaching into the triple digits. Our next chance of rainfall won`t be until early next week. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Current temperatures are in the mid 70s to lower 80s with a thin cirrus and a thin stratus deck lifting northeast over the Mid-South. Light northeast surface winds remain over the area at this hour creating a beautiful weather day across the area as we sit under northwest flow aloft and just south of a 1017 mb high pressure system. This high pressure system will continue to build east, centering over the Tennessee and Kentucky border late this evening. High pressure movement will result in increased temperatures tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s with some areas over northern Mississippi reaching into the upper 80s. By Thursday, mid-level ridging and a loosened pressure gradient will begin dominating the weather creating a pretty warm end to our workweek. Temperatures will start climbing into the lower 90s under clear skies as a large dry air column moves in place over the area with dew points in the 60s. Moving into Friday temperatures will continue to increase into the mid to upper 90s as mid-level ridging remains over the Mid-South. As we head into the weekend, a 591 mb high pressure looks to build east over the Lower Mississippi Valley resulting in yet another increase in daily high temperatures. Saturday, a few areas over northern Mississippi could see temperatures in the triple digits. Sunday will be our hottest day with many areas across the Mid-South having the capability of seeing temperatures in the triple digits as a backdoor cold front and attendant warm front look to dip down over the Mid-South Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Heat headlines may need to be in place both Saturday and Sunday as many areas will likely see heat indices >100 degrees. Come Monday, relief from the aforementioned ridge looks to finally move over the region as a meridional moisture plume looks to move over the Middle Mississippi Valley, enhanced by ample Gulf moisture. Temperatures early next workweek will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. 20-30% PoPs were carried Monday and Tuesday to account for this moisture as we are still around a week out. Bottom line, be on the lookout for shower and thunderstorm activity to ramp up early next week. AEH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with some small reductions in visibility overnight tonight at JBR. Guidance has hinted at the possibility that MEM and other terminals may see reduced visibilities in the overnight period tomorrow, but confidence was not high enough to include in the MEM TAF at this time. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...JPR