914
FXUS64 KMEG 220835
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
235 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Last bit of Arctic air will remain over the region through this
morning. A gradual warming trend will begin today, edging
temperatures closer to normal by the weekend. Our next shot at
rainfall will be Saturday evening through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

A 1039mb Arctic high pressure remains over the region this
morning and has lead to bitter cold current temperatures in the
single digits to the teens. Clear skies with mostly calm winds at
the surface and ample radiational cooling are present also at
this hour. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory remains in place through
9 this morning for windchill values ranging between -4 to 10 F.
Don`t forget, very cold temperatures along with low wind chill
values can lead to hypothermia with prolonged exposure.

The Arctic high that has been dominating our temperature pattern
this week will finally slide east late this morning as southerly
flow moves over the region. Temperatures will finally begin to
"warm" ever so slightly today with highs just above or at freezing
and tomorrow morning`s lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. An
upper-level trough will dip down, influencing the Mid-South on
Thursday with increased dewpoints and increased high temperatures in
the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. A re-enforcing cold
front will move across the Mid-South Thursday evening, leading to
a bit cooler high temperatures for Friday in the low 30s to low
40s. Another trough will dip down from the Intermountain West
region increasing our moisture profile on Friday morning. As such,
a few snow flurries could be witnessed, before temperatures edge
above freezing Friday.

High pressure and upper-level quasi-zonal flow will move over the
region Saturday bringing us near normal for this time of year with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Come Saturday evening, a cut-
off low pressure system will merge from the northwestern Gulf and
bring showers with a few possible pops of thunder late Saturday
evening through Monday morning. QPF amounts are really nothing to
write home about as amounts top out at around 1.5", greatest
amounts south of the Mississippi and Tennessee state line. High
pressure will quickly skirt back over the region by Monday
evening, ahead of our next system Wednesday morning. Yet another
cut-off low looks to eject from the southwestern CONUS bringing
another half inch of rainfall, greatest amounts once again south
of the Mississippi and Tennessee state line. Last, possibly
positive, note, as far as temperatures beyond our 7 day forecast
period, the latest CPC 8-14 day outlook has us near normal.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

VFR continues as Arctic high pressure dominates. Light winds
overnight should pick up to 5-10 kts from the south by mid morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ113-115.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CAD