Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 191736 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1010 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Cool air funneling into the Mid-South on northerly winds today.
850 mb temps of -1C to -3C are advecting into the region with
sct-bkn stratocu developing across West TN and extreme North MS.
Temps will struggle this afternoon and top out in the mid 50s
north to around 60 south. Added a few clouds to the forecast
otherwise things are on track.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 221 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

A cold front has pushed through the Mid-South which is allowing
temperatures to drop dramatically this morning. Expect a chilly
day across the area as cold air advection will occur with gusty
northerly winds, in addition to strato-cu development. Highs will
generally be in the 50s.

Skies will clear this evening as winds become light. This will
allow temperatures to plummet into the mid to upper 30s for much
of the CWA. Will issue a Frost Advisory for the Missouri Bootheel,
much of West Tennessee, and portions of Northeast Mississippi.

Temperatures will moderate on Friday, but will still be below
normal for this time of year. Expect highs in the mid to upper
60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Saturday ahead of an upper level
low pressure system. Best rain chances should hold off until late
Saturday Night. Models are now in pretty good agreement with the
track and progression of the system. Sunday will be a wet and
dreary day across the Mid-South as the upper low moves into the
region. Some embedded thunderstorms could occur as well. Highs
will be in the lower to mid 60s.

Models indicate the upper low will slow in its progression
eastward thus rain chances will continue into Monday and Tuesday
especially over areas of West Tennessee near the Tennessee River
and Northeast Mississippi as the low stalls over Middle TN/
Northern AL. Temperatures will remain below normal.

The area won`t get a chance to dry out or warm up as another cold
front will sink into the region on Wednesday continuing rain
chances.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

A dry midcontinental airmass will provide VFR through Friday.
Stratocumulus above FL045 should dissipate with loss of daytime
heating later this afternoon. Northerly winds will veer to the
northeast as a surface pressure ridge center moves from the
central plains to the Great Lakes.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Marshall-Prentiss-Tippah-Tishomingo.

TN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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