478
FXUS64 KMEG 131151 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
651 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- Scattered thunderstorms continue each day, mainly in the
  afternoon hours to early evening hours. Some storms could
  produce heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Hot and humid conditions will remain across the Mid-South, with
  high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices
  could reach or exceed 105 degrees by the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Another calm overnight period across the Mid-South with sporadic
clouds and temperatures spanning the 70s. A couple of lingering
storms are present on radar to our northwest, but should remain
out of our area. For the remainder of the day, a very similar
pattern to yesterday is anticipated as we remain wedged between
two high pressure systems with a trough across the south/central
plains. This trough is expected to deamplify over the next 24
hours, with a weak frontal boundary remaining just to our north
today. As such, will have some additional lift to generate some
more coverage in our afternoon shower and thunderstorms, with the
highest PoPs (50-70%) generally along and north of the I-40
corridor. Some of these storms could become strong to severe in
the afternoon to evening hours, with damaging wind gusts as the
main concern. PWAT values will remain around the 2" mark, so heavy
downpours could lead to minor flooding concerns in low-lying,
flood prone areas. Any storms that do develop will begin to lose
strength following sunset. Light winds with clearing skies could
lead to some patchy fog development tonight, especially near
bodies of water and for locations that experienced afternoon
thunderstorms.

Through the remainder of the forecast period, generally a
persistent summertime pattern is expected across the Mid-South.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will generally remain in the 30%
to 50% range each afternoon, with coverage decreasing around to
just after sunset. High temperatures will likely remain in the low
to mid 90s through the remainder of the week as well. As far as
heat index values go, portions of the MS delta could see values
approach 105 on Monday and Tuesday. Heat headlines could be
needed, but given the uncertainty will hold off on any products
for now. By Wednesday and Thursday, high temperatures will be
mainly in the mid 90s with dew point temps rising a bit more than
early in the week. This could lead to additional locations
reaching the 105 mark, so a Heat Advisory does look likely for at
least some portion of the Mid-South for those two days. By Friday
into next weekend, any heat index values near or over 105 would
likely be confined to the delta regions once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Generally a persistence forecast, with scattered afternoon and
early evening TSRA. Greatest coverage expected over the Ozarks,
in advance of a slow-moving upper level trough. To the east, TSRA
will be more scattered. Once going, scattered TSRA may be a
little more organized and persistent, due to slightly stronger
vertical wind shear than we`ve seen of late.

VFR will otherwise prevail over the next 24-30 hours.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Prevailing hot and humid conditions through the foreseeable
future, with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day. As such, no
fire weather concerns are in the forecast.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB