Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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811 FXUS64 KMEG 242338 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 638 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Unsettled weather will persist through Memorial Day weekend with multiple rounds of heavy rain anticipated. In addition, severe weather chances will return on Sunday. The main concern at this time will be flooding as elevated rainfall rates accompany storms through Monday morning. Fortunately, dry conditions should return by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 3PM radar imagery depicts mostly dry conditions over the Mid- South with a few pop-up thunderstorms forming over portions of north Mississippi. Overall confidence for storm coverage this afternoon and evening is low due to uncertainties regarding how well the environment will recover from this morning`s convection. However, satellite imagery depicts clearing skies over portions of the Mid-South, which may further encourage storm development over the next few hours. If storms do materialize, damaging winds and large hail will be the main concerns. Greater confidence exists overnight for a line of showers and thunderstorms to dive southeast across Missouri, impacting the Mid-South after midnight. The severe weather threat with this line will be low due to the presence of a strong Elevated Mixed Layer. Instead, the greatest concern will be heavy rainfall as precipitable water values are forecast to be around the 99th percentile. Prolific rainfall rates are anticipated overnight, with a few areas forecast to see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain. Additional precipitation will further aggravate rivers and streams, leading to rises above bankfull. We strongly suggest at this time that you have a flood plan in place through the weekend. A Flood Watch has been issued for the entire Mid-South through Monday morning. A lull in precipitation is possible by midmorning Saturday as the aforementioned line pushes out of the area. There is a chance for thunderstorms to redevelop in northeast Mississippi in the late afternoon hours, but confidence for this remains low. If a storm does develop, it will be capable of damaging winds. Additional severe weather chances appear likely on Sunday as a shortwave trough ejects across the Central Plains. Some model discrepancies are evident for this forecast package, with the ECMWF favoring a more progressive system tracking across southern Missouri. If this solution materializes, severe weather impacts will be more likely across the Mid-South, especially in areas of northwest Tennessee. Timing of severe weather appears to be Sunday evening into the overnight hours. At this time, midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be around 7.5 C/km. In addition, MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg and 0-3 km SRH of 250 m2/s2 are forecast. Therefore, any storm that does develop will be capable of producing all hazards of severe weather. By midweek, upper level ridging should put an end to our unsettled weather pattern with dry conditions returning Wednesday. ANS && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Convection is sinking south of the TAF sites this evening and it should be fairly quiet for the next few hours. The next round of convection will push through the area after midnight and mainly impact JBR, MKL and MEM. Looks like most of the activity will push out of the Mid-South by mid-morning Saturday. Expect some scattered low clouds in the morning improving to VFR as the day progresses. Winds will generally be light outside of TSRAs. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ009-018-026>028-035- 036-048-049-058. MO...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MOZ113-115. MS...Flood Watch through Monday morning for MSZ001>017-020>024. TN...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TNZ001>004-019>022- 048>055-088>092. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...SJM