Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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799 FXUS64 KMEG 041725 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1225 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 An unsettled pattern will remain in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley into late next week. This will result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with better coverage expected beginning on Sunday. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain on the lower end this weekend but increase into the middle of next week as conditions may become more conducive for an organized severe weather threat. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor early this morning shows an MCS over portions of the Upper Midwest and Central/Southern Plains. This activity is occurring just ahead of a nearby cold front. Southwest mid-level flow remains in place across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley with the Mid-South in between a couple of shortwave troughs. A mild and very humid airmass remains in place across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the middle to upper 60s. Mostly clear skies, nearly calm winds, and a nearly saturated boundary layer has resulted in the development of dense fog and low stratus across the area overnight. No changes were made to the Dense Fog Advisory that remains in effect through 9 AM CDT. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South mainly during peak heating this afternoon as overall shear will remain weak at or below 20 kts. Rain chances were lowered from the NBM guidance which contradicts latest operational and ensemble guidance. There is a potential for a strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorm predominantly west of the Mississippi River. However, confidence remains on the low end at this time. A more pronounced shortwave in the southwest mid-level flow will move from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should be greater in coverage, especially during the afternoon. 0-6 km shear increasing to 30-35 kts combined with moderately steep 700-500 mb layer lapse rates and surface-based CAPE increasing to 2000 J/kg may support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in multicell clusters. Operational and ensemble long-term models continue to show an active and unsettled pattern continuing across the region next week. Better speed and directional shear combined with favorable upper-level divergence and instability will support the potential for organized severe thunderstorms next Tuesday and especially on Wednesday. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps the potential for tornadoes will be possible. This will continue to be monitored in subsequent model runs. Stay tuned... CJC && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cluster of showers and thunderstorms, currently situated over Arkansas, will push into the Mid-South over the next several hours. Most recent CAMs are struggling to account for this activity, so TS timing in TAF is based on estimated time of arrival from radar. Overnight, winds will go variable or calm at all sites, which may encourage fog development at MKL, TUP, and JBR. Towards the end of the period, another round of showers and thunderstorms looks to impact MEM. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...ANS