631
FXUS64 KMEG 030208
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
908 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A few isolated showers will remain possible in portions of
northeast Mississippi over the next hour or two. By midnight, dry
conditions will prevail with patchy fog possible near the
Tennessee River.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Monday as an
upper level low, embedded in a shortwave trough, treks across the
Mid-South. The severe weather threat with these storms will be
hampered by lack luster shear values. However, SBCAPE on the
order of 3000 J/kg and low level lapse rates around 7.0 C/km will
support a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds and
large hail the primary concerns.

One interesting thing to note: The 00Z HRRR depicts a much more
organized line of storms pushing across Arkansas towards the
Mississippi Delta by early evening. If this solution materializes,
a greater severe weather threat may emerge. Updates regarding this
system will come as more data becomes available.

ANS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and humid conditions will continue through mid-week. Several
upper level disturbances will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
in the forecast through Wednesday. There exists a potential for
strong to severe thunderstorm development along and west of the
Mississippi River tomorrow afternoon through evening with primary
threats of damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. A weak cold
front will move through Thursday decreasing our rain chances and
cooling temperatures slightly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Weak upper level ridging continues to dominate the region leading to
a relatively dry day across the Mid-South. Upper level water vapor
imagery currently denotes a shortwave over northern Mississippi
where a few clusters of pop-up convection continue to form along. 20-
25% PoPs were held over northeast Mississippi through late this
evening to cover this continued pop-up convection. Upper ridging has
created a pretty warm, early June day with current temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s with light, variable surface winds. As light
to eventual calm surface winds remain across the Mid-South under
a thin cirrus deck, fog is likely to develop along the Tennessee
River, spreading east. Fog and reduced visibilities tonight do not
look as widespread as last night as the aforementioned cloud
cover will likely diminish widespread coverage.

Come tomorrow afternoon, shower and thunderstorm chances will
begin to increase in areas along and west of the Mississippi River
as an upper level trough and associated upper level low rotate in
over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Several shortwaves will eject
from this upper low leading to increased lift for possible strong
to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Grand
Ensemble members have a >60% chance of surface based CAPE >1500
J/kg and about a 30% chance of 0-6km bulk shear >30 kts over this
same area. Bottom line, there exists a conditional chance for
severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening. Primary threats,
if any, will be damaging winds and localized heavy rainfall.

PWATs surge near the 90th percentile Tuesday and into Wednesday
as what looks like a few MCVs move across the area along decent
height falls and several shortwaves ejecting from the west.
Dewpoints also edge up into the mid 70s Wednesday morning into
afternoon leading to ample moisture availability in support of
continued showers and thunderstorms. Greatest rainfall amounts of
up to 2" will fall over northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel through Thursday morning.

A low pressure system will push east and set up along the Great
Lakes and Canada border with an attendant, weak cold front. This
front will begin pushing across the Mid-South Thursday afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish by Thursday evening
as mostly dry conditions continue through next weekend.
Temperatures will also decrease slightly behind this
aforementioned front with daily highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Daily high temperatures ahead of this front will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Good news, the CPC 8-10 day temperature outlook
has us slightly below normal heading into mid June.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Both weak ridging aloft and weak surface high pressure should keep
us mostly VFR over the next 24-30 hour TAF cycles. However, patchy
MVFR fog is possible late tonight near TUP. Scattered
thunderstorms may impact JBR and MEM tomorrow afternoon resulting
in brief MVFR(or lower) conditions due to diminished VIS and brief
gusty winds. Prevailing wind will be light and variable tonight
and from the south to southwest tomorrow, generally 5-10kts. A
higher chance of storms will begin near MKL and TUP after 00Z
tomorrow.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS