Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
492 FXUS64 KMEG 020944 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 444 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Warm and humid conditions will prevail through midweek. Thunderstorm chances will gradually increase Monday through Wednesday, as a series of upper level disturbances lift from the southern plains through the Midsouth and lower Ohio River Valley. Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible along and west of the Mississippi River late Monday into early Tuesday morning. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threat. A weak cold front will pass through the Midsouth on Thursday. This front will bring slightly cooler temperatures and moderating humidity on Friday and the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A short wavelength upper level ridge will bring above normal temperatures to the Midsouth today, and continue the day to day reduction in thunderstorm chances. This ridge will be slower to lift out than previously expected, persisting most of the day Monday. With 850mb temperatures 1-3 C warmer than today, some parts of the Midsouth will reach 90 degrees Monday afternoon. Rain chances will edge up Monday night into Tuesday, with the approach of a broad upper level trough. This feature may be accompanied by convectively-enhanced vort maxima by the time it reaches the MS River late Monday night. NAM depicts ample PWAT and theta-e ridging in place over AR and most of the Midsouth, in support of locally heavy rainfall. Timing and coverage will be influenced by MCVs as well as differential heating later in the day Tuesday. Additional height falls will arrive Wednesday, around the southern periphery of a deep upper low developing over the northern Great Lakes. To what extent these height falls affect the Midsouth depends on the model. The latest deterministic ECMWF depicts the Great Lakes low to be weaker relative to earlier runs. Ensemble means from the ECMWF and GFS are in closer agreement than the respective deterministic solutions. But there is enough shift in the ECMWF guidance to influence the NBM toward warmer temperatures, particularly on Thursday. In any case, 60s dewpoints still appear on track for Friday, providing a brief break from our typical early summer humidity. PWB && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A persistent area of thunderstorms continues to move across portions of northeast Mississippi tonight. As such, kept VCTS at TUP for the next few hours. The main concern overnight will be lowering CIGs and fog development. MVFR/IFR CIGs will develop at MKL and TUP by sunrise with dense fog possible at the terminals. By midday, light winds and VFR CIGs will prevail. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB AVIATION...ANS