777
FXUS62 KMFL 232332
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
732 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Latest (5/24 00Z) MFL atmospheric sounding indicates a meager < ~3%
RH at 700 mb, indicating a significant lack of moisture in the
atmosphere. Stout upper ridging aloft will continue to promote a
dry atmosphere, generally quelling shower/thunderstorm chances
through the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Broad mid to upper level ridding will continue to build over South
Florida through the end of the week as a mid level trough continues
to push northeastward. This should keep a light east to southeast
flow across the area, allowing the east coast sea breeze to
propagate relatively far inland today and tomorrow so shower and
thunderstorm concerns over eastern metro areas remains nearly
nonexistent. The steering flow aloft will remain northerly through
the end of the week and this will keep the highest chances of shower
and thunderstorm development over southern and western areas of
South Florida. The potential for strong thunderstorm development
will remain low due to a lack of synoptic scale forcing and rather
low instability, however, an isolated strong storm containing gusty
winds cannot be ruled out especially over southwestern areas where
sea breeze boundaries and thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide.
High temperatures today and Friday will generally rise into the
upper 80s to around 90 along the east coast and into the lower to
mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

This Weekend...
An mid to upper level trough will remain over the Bahamas this
weekend, as the surface ridge of high pressure moves southward
into the Florida Keys due to a low level trough moving southeast
across Northern Florida. The wind flow will be light allowing for
the east and west coast sea breezes to develop and push inland
each afternoon. However, the west coast sea breeze will be a
little bit stronger than the east coast sea breeze due to the
surface flow being out of the south southwest direction. This will
allow for the west coast sea breeze to push further inland than
the east coast sea breeze each afternoon.

At the same time, the drier weather will also remain over South
Florida this weekend keeping most of the area dry. The only
exception to this is over the Interior and NE areas of South
Florida Saturday afternoon into the evening hours where a few
showers or thunderstorms could develop, due to the closeness of
the low level trough to the north.

High temperatures this weekend will also get up into the lower to
mid 90s over the metro areas to upper 90s to near 100 degrees over
the interior areas. These high temperatures will be near the
record highs for this time of year. More info in the climate
section below.

The heat indices this weekend will also be in the lower 100s over
the metro areas to the mid 100s over the interior areas. Lows this
weekend will also be in the lower to mid 70s over the interior
areas with the metro areas in the mid to upper 70s.

Early To Middle Of Next Week...
The mid to upper level trough over the Bahamas will weaken, as a
stronger mid to upper level trough moves east from the Central
United States into the Eastern United States. This will keep the
ridge of high pressure over the Florida Keys during this time
frame. This in turn will allow for the steering flow to remain in
a south to southwest direction over South Florida while keeping
the atmosphere relativity dry for this time of year. However,
there could still be a few showers and thunderstorms over South
Florida especially over the interior and east coast metro areas
where the sea breezes collide.

Highs will continue to be in the mid 90s to near 100 especially
over the northern interior areas each afternoon with the west
coast metro areas be in the lower to mid 90s. This will allow for
the heat indices to remain in the lower to mid 100s over most of
South Florida each afternoon. Lows will also remain in the lower
to mid 70s over most areas, except for the west coast metro areas
where it will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the TAF sites. Winds generally
E around 5 to 10 kt. Gulf sea breeze may cause WSW wind shift at
APF in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

In general, a gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in
place across the region through the end of the week across the local
waters. The exception to this will be across the Gulf waters, where
winds will shift to the west southwest each afternoon due to the
Gulf breeze developing. Winds will gradually become more southerly
across all local waters as the upcoming weekend progresses. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less
while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less through
the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend.  Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the
Atlantic and Gulf waters each day.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1228 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip
currents will continue across the Palm Beaches through the end of
the week. The threat of rip currents will then decrease this
weekend into next week due to more of a southerly wind flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Here are the forecast highs and record highs for the climate sites
for South Florida this weekend.

Cities      Forecast Highs             Record Highs
           5/25  5/26  5/27         5/25     5/26     5/27
MIA         95    95    95         93-2005  94-1949  96-1902
FLL         93    93    93         94-1963  94-1924  94-1924
PBI         94    94    95         96-1949  93-2000  96-1928

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  78  95 /   0  10   0  10
West Kendall     73  93  77  95 /   0  10   0  10
Opa-Locka        76  92  77  95 /   0  10   0  10
Homestead        75  90  78  91 /   0  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  76  88  78  92 /   0  10   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  76  90  77  92 /   0  10   0  10
Pembroke Pines   77  94  77  94 /   0  10   0  10
West Palm Beach  73  91  75  94 /   0   0   0  20
Boca Raton       74  91  77  92 /   0  10   0  10
Naples           77  91  77  90 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION/UPDATE...SRB