Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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109 FXUS62 KMFL 101906 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 306 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Ideal conditions are in place this week for a prolonged heavy rain event across South FL. At the surface, a frontal boundary is slowly sagging south across the deep south and is expected to stall in the vicinity of northern FL tomorrow. At the upper levels, we`ll see troughing over the eastern US with mid/upper level high pressure over the central Atlantic. This setup will result in enhanced tropical moisture pulled up across the area, which is expected to remain pooled over the region for much of the week. Today is a bit of a transition day with weak ridging starting to break down over the area. Moist southerly flow will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, and with the slow motion of these storms there could still be an urban flood risk. High temps will be in the lower 90s and with dewpoints in the upper 70s, this will result in heat indices over 100 degrees this afternoon, and some places that avoid rainfall may briefly approach advisory criteria. Overnight into tomorrow is when conditions really start to become concerning. PWAT values will increase to around 2.3 inches over the east coast metro and in excess of 2.5 inches over SW FL. Most hi-res guidance is in pretty good agreement of periods of heavy rain starting over SW FL early Tuesday morning and then spreading across the rest of South FL during the day. With these types of PWAT values which are near local maximums, expect intense rain rates which will quickly cause flooding concerns in urban and poor drainage locations. As for rainfall amounts, the current forecast is generally 2-5 inches across the east coast metro, and 5-8 inches over SW FL, with locally higher amounts possible just through Wednesday. Due to this, a Flood Watch will go into effect at midnight tonight and run through Wednesday evening. With plenty of rain and cloud cover on Tuesday, high temps will only reach the low to mid 80s over much of the area, with possibly some upper 80s over SE FL if rain holds off a bit over that location. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Mid to upper level troughing will remain in place across the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Florida Peninsula through the end of the week. At the surface, the frontal boundary stalled out over Northern Florida will gradually wash out as the week progresses. This will help to keep a moisture rich southerly flow in place during this time frame. As this deep layer moisture advection continues through the rest of the week, PWAT values will remain near 2.5 inches or higher across the region through Friday. This will result in the potential for widespread rainfall to continue through the end of the week with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall pushing through South Florida during this time frame. When adding in the possible rainfall amounts through the early part of the week, rainfall totals for the entire week could range from 6 to 10 inches across the east coast metro areas and 10 to 15 inches across Southwest Florida with locally higher amounts possible. If these trends continue, this could result in the Flood Watch potentially being extended across South Florida as the exact details get ironed out. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With increased cloud cover in place, high temperatures will be held down and will remain in the lower to mid 80s across most areas through the end of the week. As the upcoming weekend progresses, global and ensemble guidance is showing signs of a change in the weather pattern as mid level ridging tries to build back into the area and the mid level trough retrogrades westward in the Gulf of Mexico. This will help to gradually push the deepest moisture advection back off further into the Gulf of Mexico and allow for drier air to push into the region. This could potentially result in a return to a more typical summertime pattern across South Florida especially heading towards the second half of the weekend. Uncertainty does remain high for this part of the forecast as it is at the end of the forecast period as well as timing differences in the guidance with the westward push of the mid level trough. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. If some drier air were to be able to work into the region during this time frame, high temperatures will gradually moderate as the weekend progresses. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will result in brief periods of sub VFR ceilings and visibilities, along with erratic winds near thunderstorms. Outside of storms, the light SE sea breeze across the east coast metro should turn back to SW later this afternoon into early evening. Periods of heavy rain are expected on Tuesday with prevailing MVFR ceilings likely, and some IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities are possible, especially after 10Z at APF and 12Z for the remaining TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected over the area waters the next several days, which will result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of thunderstorms, seas generally 2 ft or less and cautionary southerly winds expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 85 78 87 / 70 80 90 100 West Kendall 77 87 76 88 / 70 80 90 90 Opa-Locka 79 88 77 89 / 70 90 90 100 Homestead 78 87 78 88 / 70 80 90 90 Fort Lauderdale 80 85 78 86 / 70 90 90 100 N Ft Lauderdale 79 85 78 87 / 70 90 90 100 Pembroke Pines 80 89 78 89 / 70 90 90 100 West Palm Beach 78 85 76 87 / 70 90 90 100 Boca Raton 78 87 77 88 / 70 90 90 100 Naples 78 86 77 86 / 80 90 100 100 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Wednesday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...CMF