471
FXUS62 KMFL 150658
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
258 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A weak frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida
this morning while a mid-level trough sits across the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. These features have maintained southwesterly
surface flow across South Florida and a ribbon of moisture draped
from east to west across the area - with highest amounts near
the far southern peninsula. This moisture will linger through
the day today leading to another afternoon and evening of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will
likely be lower than Friday as overall moisture will begin to
decrease Saturday afternoon as surface high pressure begins to
build.

The surface ridge should nudge the moisture envelope westward
leading to slightly drier conditions on Sunday, although still
wet enough to support scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the day with greatest chances during the afternoon and
evening with peak daytime heating. Easterly flow should return
to the area by Sunday afternoon, leading to a greater coverage
of convection across interior and Southwest Florida.

The sun could make a few appearances throughout the weekend,
although with abundant moisture still hanging around, this
weekend will likely remain mostly cloudy to overcast.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s with heat indices in
the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

To start the new work week, the aforementioned surface high
will continue to build across south Florida into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. This will bring us back into a more typical
summertime weather regime of afternoon sea breeze activity.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will favor interior and
southwest areas as the east coast sea breezes develop early
in the afternoon and quickly push inland. But still can`t rule
out a few strong storms affecting any of the east coast metro
areas at times. For now, keeping POPs around 50% for this time
period.

Highs temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low
90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits
towards the middle to end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the
overnight hours. Light winds overnight will increase out of the
SW by the middle of Saturday morning. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will develop once again Saturday
afternoon and could bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals
especially later in the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm
activity should gradually diminsh as Saturday evening progresses.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A gentle to moderate southwesterly wind flow will remain in
place across the local waters today. As high pressure builds,
they will gradually shift to a northeasterly direction on Sunday.
Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain
at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will still be possible today and winds and waves may
be locally higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  79  89  79 /  60  20  30  20
West Kendall     85  75  90  77 /  50  20  30  10
Opa-Locka        85  78  90  79 /  60  20  30  20
Homestead        86  78  88  79 /  50  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  85  79  87  80 /  50  30  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  85  79  88  79 /  60  20  30  20
Pembroke Pines   85  79  91  80 /  60  20  30  20
West Palm Beach  85  77  88  78 /  60  20  30  20
Boca Raton       85  78  88  79 /  60  20  30  20
Naples           85  77  91  76 /  70  40  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ072-074-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...CWC