Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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846 FXUS62 KMFL 091727 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 127 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An upper level trough continues to move off into the Atlantic today and upper level ridging briefly builds in before the next system starts to approach tomorrow and will be the catalyst for a prolonged wet period for later this week. Convection today will be primarily diurnal sea-breeze driven showers and storms. Morning sounding and ACARS data shows much drier air aloft today, however PWAT values are still in the 1.8-2 inch range. With light steering flows, slow moving storms will once again pose an urban flood risk across the metro. High temps this afternoon will be in the lower 90s, and with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, peak heat indices will again be over 100 degrees. Some locations may approach advisory criteria, especially the longer they stay dry today, however with convection expected to develop across much of the metro this afternoon, there won`t be enough areal coverage to warrant issuing an advisory, but folks should still take precautions for the heat and humidity if they have outdoor plans today. Convection over land dissipates this evening and convection overnight will be confined to the Atlantic and Gulf waters, with some occasional showers possible along the coasts. Low temps tonight will range from the low to mid 70s around the lake and interior South FL, to around 80 close to the coasts. Next shortwave pivoting around the base of a longwave trough over the eastern US will dive down towards the deep south US on Monday, with a surface front slowly moving south towards the northern Gulf and eastward draping across northern FL. Locally, the southerly flow will start to pull in more tropical moisture, with HREF PWATs increasing to 2-2.2 inches across South FL during the day. Convection should be more widespread especially during the afternoon into early evening hours. As will be the theme for the entire week, urban flooding will be a concern with any slow moving thunderstorms, especially if multiple storms pass over the same area in a short period of time. High temps will be in the lower 90s, and will likely occur early in the afternoon before convection starts to overspread the area. Peak heat indices will again top out over 100 degrees, but afternoon convection will likely prevent any headlines from being needed. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 To begin the long term period, a mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters as a mid to upper level low begins to take shape over the Western Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the steering flow to remain south-southwest over South Florida which results in continuous deep tropical moisture advection into the region from the Caribbean Sea. In return, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are projected to continue developing over South Florida each day with the focus over the interior and east coast metro areas where the sea breezes collide. Beginning on Tuesday, long range models are highlighting high pressure remaining over the Western Atlantic waters with the mid to upper level low over the Western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the models are showing a tropical low pressure system advecting northward from the Caribbean Sea into the center of the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the continuation of the south-southwest wind flow over South Florida and allow for very deep tropical moisture to constantly work into South Florida from the Caribbean sea. Therefore, numerous rain showers along with some thunderstorms are forecast for South Florida for the middle to end of the week. Some of the showers and thunderstorms could produce periods of heavy rain over South Florida during this time frame. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the low but it should become more confined over the next couple of days. More information is provided in the hydro section below. Highs for this time period extending Tuesday and beyond will be cooler over South Florida mainly in the 80s due to the cloud cover and rain. However, the lows will be warm across South Florida with mid to upper 70s interior areas to around 80 metro areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening may result in erratic winds and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities. Outside of thunderstorms, E/SE winds 5-10 kts along the east coast terminals and a westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Winds overnight will be light and variable. && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters today and through each day of this upcoming week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions are expected today through mid-week with southerly winds 5-15 kts and seas 2 ft or less. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An increase in tropical moisture is expected this upcoming week, with PWAT values in excess of 2.5 inches possible which would be around seasonal maxes. While still too early to pinpoint exact timing and rainfall amounts, periods of heavy rain are possible from Tuesday through at least Friday across South Florida. Repeated bouts of heavy rain may result in flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. Flood Watches may be needed this upcoming week as details come more into focus. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 90 79 88 / 40 70 60 80 West Kendall 77 92 76 88 / 40 70 60 80 Opa-Locka 79 92 79 90 / 40 70 60 80 Homestead 78 90 78 88 / 40 70 60 80 Fort Lauderdale 80 90 79 87 / 40 70 70 90 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 79 88 / 40 70 60 90 Pembroke Pines 79 94 79 91 / 40 70 60 80 West Palm Beach 77 92 76 88 / 40 70 60 90 Boca Raton 79 92 78 89 / 40 70 60 90 Naples 80 92 79 88 / 50 80 80 90 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CMF