278
FXUS62 KMFL 141836
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
236 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida, while a
mid-level trough sits across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The
plume of enhanced moisture which sat over South FL for the past
couple of days has shifted southward this morning, with the main
bulk of it now sitting over the FL Keys. This has allowed for
drier mid-level air to filter in over the area as shown by the
ACARS and 12Z MFL soundings. As a result, much of the convection
early this morning has been confined to the FL Keys/Straits and
southern portions of the CWA.

This will be the prevailing pattern of behavior for the rest of the
day as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop across South FL.
Coverage will not be as widespread as previous days, but
increased daytime heating as a result of decreased cloud coverage
will help destabilize the atmosphere enough to support
thunderstorm development and some heavy downpours. Guidance
suggests some areas could see between 1-2" of rain, with localized
higher amounts possible through the day which could trigger
concerns for flash flooding, especially for vulnerable areas that
received several inches of rain over the past several days.

Heading into Saturday, the mid level trough axis will remain
near the region. At the surface, while Invest AL90 will move
further away to the northeast in the western Atlantic, South
Florida will still be close enough to the moisture tail to support
higher end chances of showers and thunderstorms. The latest
guidance still shows PWAT values ranging between 2.0 and 2.3
inches throughout the day on Saturday. This is more than enough
moisture to support shower and thunderstorm development as the day
progresses. The highest chances will remain in the afternoon
hours and heavy downpours will still be possible with the
strongest thunderstorms. This would create the potential for
additional flooding concerns depending on where the stronger
storms set up. This will continue to be monitored as the day
progresses.

High temperatures today and tomorrow could reach the upper 80s
areas across the northern CWA where cloud coverage will be most
limited, with temperatures further south where the rain chances
are maximized reaching the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Models depict a synoptic pattern dominated by upper level
troughiness over the area, while a mid level trough/low complex
deepens across the E CONUS. Globals/ensembles show fair agreement in
pushing the trough/low into the west Atlantic during the weekend,
which will result in a gradual shift of winds over SoFlo to a more
easterly flow by Sunday. This weather pattern shift should bring the
onset of closer-to-normal conditions for this time of the year and
provide a break from the rain event of previous days.

Sunday should still see scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms, then drier air finally begins to filter across the
area during the first half of next week. With the aforementioned
trough/low migrating further away from the region, the overall
shower/storm activity should decrease across SoFlo, but with enough
PWAT/lapse rate profiles remaining in place for scattered coverage
to return each afternoon.

Monday through mid week, models show a sfc high pressure building
across the peninsula and into the E GOMEX, bringing back the
aforementioned more typical summertime weather regime of afternoon
seabreeze activity. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will favor
interior areas as the east coast seabreezes develop early in the
afternoon and quickly push inland. But can`t rule out a few strong
storms affecting any of the Atlantic metro areas at times.

Highs temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s,
with heat indices in the upper 90s or even triple digits towards
the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

MVFR/IFR will be likely across East Coast terminals over the next
couple of hours as scattered SHRA/TSRA roll through. Southwesterly
winds will prevail, but an easterly sea breeze may try to impinge
on the East Coast sites once convection clears out. Light and
variable winds overnight with mostly dry conditions, before a
return to southwesterly flow and VCTS tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A moderate to fresh southwesterly wind flow will remain in place
across the local waters today. These winds will become gentle to
moderate for the upcoming weekend and they will gradually shift
and become east northeasterly on Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic
and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through
the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible today and into the upcoming weekend. Winds and
waves may be locally higher in and around showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  86  78  88 /  40  60  30  60
West Kendall     74  88  75  90 /  30  60  30  60
Opa-Locka        76  89  78  90 /  40  60  20  60
Homestead        76  87  77  89 /  30  50  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  77  85  78  87 /  40  60  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  86  78  88 /  40  60  30  60
Pembroke Pines   77  89  78  90 /  40  60  20  60
West Palm Beach  75  87  76  88 /  40  60  20  60
Boca Raton       76  87  78  88 /  40  60  30  60
Naples           78  87  77  91 /  60  60  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC/ATV
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATV