398
FXUS62 KMFL 251356
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
956 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

This morning`s sounding and ACARS data continue to support the
development of scattered showers and strong thunderstorms (some
potentially severe) this afternoon across portions of the interior
and the East Coast. Current values of SBCAPE and PWATs sit at
1300 J/kg and 1.5 inches, respectively, and could climb up to
values greater than 3000 J/Kg and near 2 inches this afternoon.
This - combined with growing lapse rates as warming continues -
will support a damaging wind threat and the chance for localized
flooding across western-most portions of the southeast FL metro
areas where the sea breezes are forecast to collide. An
additional risk exists for small hail with some of the stronger
storms, but warmer temperatures aloft will help limit this risk.

Temperatures will reach the mid 90s later this afternoon ahead of
the convection, with heat indices in the low 100s possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Models show fair agreement regarding the overall scenario
for today. The persisting ridge over the area will briefly
erode as a shortwave trough feature migrates eastward into
the Atlantic seaboard. Thermodynamic parameters will become
a little more robust by this afternoon with SBCAPE values
around 1500 J/kg, while model PWATs around 2 inches depict
increasing moisture advection with the winds shifting S/SW.
But the key element for convection to get initiated will revolve
around the sea breeze boundaries, with the Atlantic sea breeze
driving thunderstorm activity early in the afternoon.

The overall flow pattern will favor shower/storm activity over
the east half of SoFlo with best chances late in the afternoon.
As the sea breeze boundaries begin marching inland, expect a few
storms to become strong, or even severe at times. The latest
convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has
placed the area under a marginal risk for severe storms today.
Main hazards will be strong damaging winds, large hail, lightning
strikes, and localized flooding.

Despite the increasing cloud cover and potential for convection,
model solutions remain stubborn in keeping afternoon high temps
in the low-mid 90s. Can`t even rule out a few interior spots in
the upper 90s.

For Sunday, models quickly push the aforementioned trough further
Into the western Atlantic, with a mid-level ridge building back
Across the peninsula. This will help in shifting flow back to the
SE, along with increasing drier mid-level air advection. However,
The Gulf coast should have a westerly sea breeze veering winds to
a more westerly flow in the afternoon. Convective activity will be
much less than Saturday, with mainly the Atlantic coast carrying
low-end POPs.

Expect the warming trend to continue on Sunday with afternoon highs
in the low-mid 90s, along with heat index values in the 105 range
over interior areas

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Models keep a mid-level ridge in place early next week, with drier
mid-level air and ridging keeping convection to a minimum through
the middle of the work week. Then global solutions show the mid-level
ridge eroding away as a deepening trough reaches the eastern CONUS.
An associated sfc frontal boundary will move southward and through
the Florida peninsula late Wednesday and Thursday. And although some
discrepancies remain in the global models, it seems that solutions
are trending towards pushing the boundary either near of just over
SoFlo. However, regardless of the final outcome, it should bring
an increase in moisture and instability, with better chances of
showers and storms for the end of the work week. Convection will
again be mainly driven by sea breezes each afternoon.

Expect high temperatures continue to hit the low-mid 90s across
the east coast metro areas and in the upper 90s over some interior
locations. Increasing moisture will also result in heat index values
in the 100 to 105 range, and localized areas rising above 105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the morning across all sites.
Chances for terminal disruptions and MVFR/IFR increase after 19Z
as scattered SHRA/TSRA develop across southeast FL. Light and
variable winds this morning will give way to SE flow 10-15 kts
this afternoon. Light and variable again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Boating conditions will remain generally good today, then
southerly winds will become breezy and close to exercise
caution criteria on Sunday and Monday. Benign conditions
should return on Tuesday as winds shift to the SE and
decrease to around 10kt across the coastal waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 236 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

The moderate risk of rip currents will become low at the Palm
beaches today, and remain low over the rest of the beaches through
the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast
metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast
highs are expected to reach the mid 90s.

      5/25     5/26     5/27
MIA: 93-2005  94-1949  96-1902
FLL: 94-1963  94-1924  94-1924
PBI: 96-1949  93-2000  96-1928

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  78  92  80 /  50  40  30  10
West Kendall     94  73  94  76 /  50  40  20  10
Opa-Locka        94  76  94  78 /  50  40  30  10
Homestead        92  76  92  78 /  40  40  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  91  78  91  80 /  40  40  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  92  77  93  79 /  40  40  30  20
Pembroke Pines   95  77  96  79 /  40  40  30  10
West Palm Beach  93  75  94  77 /  40  40  20  10
Boca Raton       93  76  94  77 /  40  40  30  20
Naples           91  76  92  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...ATV