764
FXUS62 KMFL 240625
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
225 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

A broad mid level ridge will continue to extend eastward across the Gulf of
Mexico and into South Florida today. At the surface, high
pressure will continue to bring a rather light wind flow to the
region. This will allow for the east coast sea breeze to propagate
further inland once again this afternoon. With a north to
northwesterly wind flow in place across the mid levels, this will
continue to help usher in a drier air mass over the region which
will help to limit shower and thunderstorm activity across the
region today. However, a brief shower or thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out later this afternoon into the early evening hours mainly
across interior portions of Southwest Florida where the sea
breezes will collide and interact with each other. High
temperatures today will generally rise into the upper 80s to
around 90 across the east coast metro areas and into the lower to
mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

On Saturday, mid level ridging will start to show signs of breaking down and
retrograding back to the west southwest in response to a weak mid
level shortwave trough pushing off the Southeast coast and into
the western Atlantic. This will cause a weak surface trough to
push southeastward towards Northern Florida as the day progresses.
While this surface trough will remain well off to the north of
the region, it will get close enough to cause the lower level
winds to become more southerly throughout the day. With the
surface trough and mid level shortwave nearby, this may help to
provide a little bit of extra lift in combination with the sea
breeze boundaries to support a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The best chances of
shower and thunderstorm activity will favor the Lake Okeechobee
region and east coast metro areas due to the southerly wind flow.
High temperatures on Saturday could approach daily records across
the east coast metro areas as they will rise into the lower to mid
90s. With southerly flow in place, interior portions of Southwest
Florida could rise into the mid to upper 90s during this time
frame. Heat indices will be rising as well as they could range
between 100 and 105 with the highest values over the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Heading into the second half of the upcoming Holiday Weekend, Mid level
ridging will briefly build back into South Florida as the weak
mid level trough pushes away from the region and further into the
western Atlantic. The weak surface trough off to the northeast
will still be close enough to provide a south to southwesterly
wind flow across the region on Sunday and Monday. With subsidence
taking place due to the mid level ridge over the region, shower
and thunderstorm activity will remain very limited during this
time frame with a drier air layer pushing back into the mid
levels, however, convection cannot be entirely ruled out. Any
shower or thunderstorm development would favor the interior and
east coast during this time frame due to the south to
southwesterly wind flow and would be low topped and short lived.
High temperatures on Sunday and Monday will once again soar to
near record values over the east coast metro areas as they rise
into the lower to mid 90s. High temperatures will rise into the
upper 90s across the interior sections. Heat index values will
range between 100 and 105 across most areas during this time
frame.

On Tuesday into Wednesday, mid level ridging will break down once again
as a stronger mid level trough digs southeastward from the Great
Lakes Region and pushes across the Eastern Seaboard. At the
surface, a weakening frontal boundary will push through the Gulf
Coast States on Tuesday and then into Northern and Central Florida
on Wednesday. Out ahead of this front, south to southwesterly
wind flow will continue and moisture advection will take place
during this time frame. Uncertainty remains high in this part of
the forecast as the latest guidance continues to remain in
disagreement regarding how far south the front pushes and if the
front holds together by the time it gets this far south. In any
event, moisture advection will slowly increase the chances of
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into Wednesday. Most of the
shower and thunderstorm development will still be mainly sea
breeze driven and the highest chances will remain over the
interior and east coast. Hot conditions will remain in place
during this time frame as high temperatures rise into the lower to
mid 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the upper 90s
across the interior sections. With additional moisture moving into
the region, heat indices could continue to range between 100 and
105 across most areas with some localized areas rising above 105.
This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Light and variable winds will persist through this morning, before
shifting E-SE around 10-15kts at the east coast terminals and
W-SW at KAPF in the afternoon

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the local
waters today. The exception to this will be over the Gulf waters
where winds will become west southwest in the afternoon as the sea
breeze develops. Winds across all local waters will gradually
become more southerly over the upcoming weekend and then south to
southwesterly during the early to middle portion of next week.
Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or
less through the upcoming weekend and into next week. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the local
waters each day.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024


With onshore flow remaining in place, a moderate risk of rip currents
will continue across the Palm Beaches today and into the first
part of the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across the east coast
metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday weekend: Forecast
highs are expected to reach the mid 90s.

      5/25     5/26     5/27
MIA: 93-2005  94-1949  96-1902
FLL: 94-1963  94-1924  94-1924
PBI: 96-1949  93-2000  96-1928

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  79  92  78 /  10  10  30  10
West Kendall     93  74  94  74 /  10  10  40  10
Opa-Locka        93  77  95  77 /  10  10  30  10
Homestead        90  77  92  77 /  10  10  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  78  92  78 /   0   0  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  90  77  92  77 /   0   0  30  20
Pembroke Pines   94  78  96  78 /  10   0  30  10
West Palm Beach  90  74  94  75 /   0   0  20  20
Boca Raton       91  76  94  77 /   0   0  20  20
Naples           91  78  91  77 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Carr