Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 201317 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
917 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

High pressure over South Florida will move slowly east into the
Western Atlantic waters through tonight, as a weak cold front over
Northern Florida moves into Lake Okeechobee region and stalls
out. This will allow for the dry weather to remain over South
Florida today, before a few showers develop over the Atlantic
waters and the east coast metro areas late tonight due to an
increase in easterly wind flow.

The winds will be light and variable today over the local waters
of South Florida. This will keep the seas at 2 feet or less along
with low risk of rip currents along both the east and west coast
beaches of South Florida today.

There will be enhanced fire weather conditions today due to
relative humidities getting down into the mid to upper 20s over
interior sections of South Florida. However, the 15 foot winds
will remain below 15 mph today. Therefore, no headlines will be
needed for fire weather today over South Florida.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and other changes are


The winds will be light and variable this morning over all of the
taf sites. Easterly winds will then increase to 5 to 10 mph this
afternoon over the east coast taf sites and 5 to 10 mph from the
west over KAPF taf site. The ceiling and vis will also remain in
the VFR conditions along with dry weather at all of the taf sites


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

One more dry day ahead of a frontal boundary that will push
southward today before stalling over South Florida. Sea breezes
are expected to develop late this morning into the afternoon,
which while dry, should bring some wind shifts and slightly higher
dewpoints in their wake. Fog could again develop overnight,
particularly south of where the stalled boundary is located.

Saturday is a transition day as the stalled frontal boundary over
the region will serve as a catalyst for convection and a return to
rain chances. Some thunderstorms are possible as a few mid-level
disturbances pass over the east coast on Saturday. For Sunday, we
begin to see the next frontal system emerge in the Southern Plains
and Mid-South. The remnant front begins to retreat northward
allowing for a more moist airmass to move over the area. As the
low pressure passes to the north of the region over the Interstate
20 corridor heading into the Tennessee Valley, it will allow for
a more unsettled pattern over the southeastern United States. For
our region, showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the front on
Monday into Tuesday. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning remain
the primary concerns with any thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week.

On Wednesday, the front will exit into the Bahamas and Cuba
allowing a slot of drier air to move over the region. The pattern
is not conducive for much of a cooling off as another low pressure
system moves across the Ohio Valley late in the week with a
weakening reinforcing frontal boundary pushing through Florida to
close out the work week with the potential of some showers.

A front will push across the state today and stall over the area
for the next few days. Showers and thunderstorms can produce
locally higher winds and waves but there will also be bouts of
wind surges that could lead to rougher seas. SCEC/SCA conditions
are possible through the weekend into early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 127 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

AVIATION...Weak front expected to move through state today
before stalling out near South Florida late in the day. Winds will
remain light/vrb overnight, trending NW towards daybreak as front
moves further south. Both seabreezes still expected to develop
this afternoon, with gusty ENE winds at ATLC sites and west at
KAPF. Winds at east coast sites remain elevated overnight as wind
surge arrives late, with potential for a few SHRA affecting KPBI
after 01Z. Other sites should remain dry.

West Palm Beach  72  83  71  82 /  20  20  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  74  82 /  20  20  50  50
Miami            73  85  73  83 /  20  20  40  40
Naples           68  87  69  85 /  10  20  20  50



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