346
FXUS62 KMFL 301533
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1133 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A subtle upper troughing pattern will remains present across
southeastern CONUS, including South Florida. The east-northeasterly
winds continue to prevail across the region. As a result, the
convergence of low-level moisture, due to ENE winds and the Gulf sea
breeze, will lead to the majority of convective activity occurring
over the interior and southwest Florida. While the 12Z morning
sounding did not have favorable lapse rates (<6.0 J/kg), models
indicate steepening lapse rates this afternoon, as well as CAPE
values (1500 J/kg+). Therefore, we cannot rule out a few strong
thunderstorms, particularly from the early afternoon through late
evening hours.

Tomorrow, there will be a weakening of the upper flow and the
eastward exit of the upper level shortwave into the western Atlantic
waters. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur
further westward in the SW coastal and interior regions. Despite
weaker activity than previously this week, the storms will still
bringing potential impacts including strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning, and localized flooding.

For the remainder of the week, the afternoon high temperatures will
remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the highest temperatures
expected across the western portions of the region. The eastern
metro will remain above heat advisory criteria, with apparent
temperatures not expected to rise above 100-102 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A welcomed change in the weather pattern is to be expected across
much of South Florida this upcoming weekend, owing to a backdoor
cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will maintain
the prevalence of east-northeasterly winds, which will result in a
milder breeze coming in from the Atlantic waters across eastern
portions of our CWFA. Expect a few quick-moving low-topped showers
across the east coast at times, with the bulk of convection
spawning yet again over the interior and southwestern portions of
the region. A generally quiescent synoptic regime should limit
thunderstorm intensity, however cannot rule out a few strong pulse
storms that take advantage of high instability across the
interior region.

Towards the beginning to middle of next week, winds will gradually
veer out of the east, resulting in a slight uptick in temperatures
across the region. Expect a few showers and possibly thunderstorms
in the morning hours across the east coast, with a gradual westward
drift towards the interior again.

A much needed reprieve from the oppressive temperatures can be
expected through the weekend and into early next week across much of
South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
can be expected along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more
manageable 65-68 degrees, allowing for lower apparent temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming will take place
towards early to middle portions of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the TAF
cycle. Winds become ENE around 10 kt by the early afternoon for
the eastern TAF sites with most convection generally expected
over the interior and southwestern FL, which may include KAPF. The
SSW flow is expected near KAPF in the afternoon and early evening
with the Gulf sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Generally benign boating conditions will continue through the end of
the week. By the weekend, wave heights will increase over the
Atlantic waters with potential for waves as high as 5 to 6 feet
in the presence of a backdoor cold front. Winds may increase out
of the east-northeast, up to around 20 kt, this weekend as well.
This may prompt a Small Craft Advisory, which will be determined
as the time approaches. Aside from this, there is potential for
daily showers and thunderstorms, thus resulting in locally
elevated winds and seas periodically.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Enhanced easterly flow, in the presence of a departing front,
will increase the risk for rip currents this weekend across the
Atlantic beaches. As a result, a high risk for rip current could
develop across the Atlantic beaches this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  78  90  79 /  30  20  20  20
West Kendall     93  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  10
Opa-Locka        93  77  91  77 /  30  20  20  20
Homestead        91  77  89  78 /  40  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  78  88  79 /  30  20  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20
Pembroke Pines   94  78  93  78 /  30  20  20  20
West Palm Beach  91  76  89  76 /  20  30  20  20
Boca Raton       91  77  90  77 /  20  20  20  20
Naples           93  74  96  74 /  40  40  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...JS