Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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803 FXUS62 KMFL 290520 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 120 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 756 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 After a few stout thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, things have started to quiet down though some showers and storms linger around Lake Okeechobee and other portions of Palm Beach County. Activity should continue to diminish through the evening. Made some light adjustments to hourly temperatures and dewpoints through the evening to better reflect observed trends. No additional major updates are anticipated through the evening. Have a great Tuesday night! && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today as troughing moves into the eastern US displacing the mid-lvl ridge which had been in place over our area the last couple days. At the same time a weak cold front will shift into the vicinity of Northern Florida and then largely stall north of the area for much of the upcoming week. A warm and moist airmass will be in place over SFL with highs once again increasing well into the 90s area-wide and peak heat indices into the triple digits. Heat indices may increase over 105 degrees over portions of the area, with some potential for some sites over the east coast meeting heat advisory criteria, however, ongoing convective initiation and cloud cover will limit the duration component of our heat criteria. The low- lvl mean flow will still have a mean westerly component, making the east coast sea breeze once again the main forcing mechanism for convection and also focusing the highest rain chances over the eastern Interior and east coast metro. Deep-layer flow will remain weak (albeit increasing slightly as a shortwave approaches) so don`t expect convection to be particularly organized, although strong winds from individual cell microbursts will remain a threat given steep low-lvl lapse rates and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Cooling temperatures aloft (particularly over Palm Beach county) will result in some hail potential as well, although not particularly confident in the large hail potential. The overall synoptic setup will be pretty similar on Wednesday with the stalled front remaining north of the area, local winds being largely driven by sea-breeze circulations, and hot temperatures persisting. Convection will once again be sea-breeze driven although spatial coverage may be a little more equitable as westerly synoptic flow weakens allowing for greater inland progression of the sea breeze. Convective coverage and intensity may be marginally lower than today given the lack of shortwave forcing and somewhat warmer mid-lvl temperatures, however on the whole scattered coverage (i.e. 35-50 PoPs) seem reasonable. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Longwave troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS through most of the long term period and then several shortwave segments will pass through the Florida Peninsula heading into next week. Easterly flow looks to begin establishing itself over South Florida for Thursday and Friday, though it will be on the weaker side. Nevertheless, scattered convection will initiate in the afternoon both Thursday and Friday with the focus of that expected for the interior and west coast areas under the low level easterly flow. The stationary boundary will remain north of the area through Friday, keeping generally hot conditions across the area. East coast areas will likely be a few degrees cooler given easterly flow and sea breeze effects. Over the weekend and into next week, high pressure will strengthen off the coast of the Carolinas with easterly flow becoming increasingly breezy. In addition, this will cause the stalled frontal boundary to shift southwards as a weak backdoor cold front on Saturday which should bring some relief from the increased heat. Thunderstorm chances will be reduced behind the boundary as more stable air filters in, although moisture will be high enough for some quick-moving coastal convergence induced showers and pop-up storms along the sea/gulf breezes. With stronger easterly flow, the focus for most convection over the weekend will be for interior and west coast areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Lingering showers around PBI should gradually dissipate during the overnight hours. Mainly VFR should prevail at all terminals through 15Z, then Sub-VFR periods are possible with showers and thunderstorms developing around the Atlantic terminals. Light and variable winds will shift to the SE in the 10-12kt range after 15Z. Stronger gusts will accompany any thunderstorm that affects any of the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Overall light to moderate S-SE flow will continue through at least the middle of the week over the Atlantic waters, while the Gulf waters will see more westerly winds, particularly over the near- shore waters in the afternoon given the onshore progression of the Gulf breeze. Seas will remain 3 feet or less through the period. Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the mid-week period resulting in brief periods of locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 77 91 78 / 50 20 30 20 West Kendall 95 74 93 74 / 40 20 30 20 Opa-Locka 95 76 93 77 / 40 20 30 20 Homestead 93 75 91 77 / 40 30 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 91 78 90 78 / 40 30 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 77 90 77 / 40 20 20 20 Pembroke Pines 96 77 95 78 / 40 20 20 20 West Palm Beach 93 75 91 75 / 30 20 10 10 Boca Raton 93 76 91 76 / 40 20 20 20 Naples 93 76 95 75 / 30 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...17