Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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470 FXUS62 KMHX 171744 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 144 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure dominates through Thursday resulting in dry and warm conditions. Coastal troughing may bring some showers to the region late in the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM Mon...Sprawling upper ridge remains entrenched over much of the eastern CONUS this morning with broad high pressure, centered off the mid-Atlantic and New England coast, expanding across much of the southeastern states. Prior forecast is tracking well, and the stage is set for another warm, sunny day with highs around 90 across the coastal plain and low to mid 80s across the OBX. Dew points will be just a couple degrees higher today (low to mid 60s) and winds will be around 10 kt or less out of the southeast. Overall, today will feel very similar to Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 2 AM Monday...Winds will be light out of the southeast and will back to the east by sunrise tomorrow. Lows will be warm in the mid 60s across the coastal plain and low 70s at the beaches and along the OBX. Although there will be few clouds and winds may decouple in some areas, widespread fog does not seem probable given the lack of moisture in the column. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Mon...Pleasant but dry weather through mid week, then heat and humidity build at the end of the week through the weekend. Small chances for showers and perhaps a few storms Friday into the weekend. Tuesday through Thursday...Strong ridging will build over the eastern US through mid- week, which will bring cont rain- free weather. The core of the ridging will remain north of ENC initially, and thus keeping the intense heat to the north across the Mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast. For ENC, easterly flow is expected, which will keep conditions tempered, and in fact quite pleasant. Highs expected in the mid-upr 80s interior, to low 80s OBX. In addition, TD`s will be very tolerable, and remain in the 60s. This will bring cool nights to the region, with lows in the 60s away from the immediate coast, to low 70s beaches and OBX zones. Friday through the Weekend...There are still notable differences in the long range models, but the consensus is that weak low pres will develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the Southeast Coast (FL/GA). Center of upr ridge will slide eastward a bit with a weakness allowing for some weak mid level troughing, and allowing for more of a serly to srly flow to develop and bring inc heat and humidity starting late this work week into the weekend. PoPs remain low, though by Fri into the weekend, some chance of a return to typical afternoon/early evening sea breeze convection. Pops remain at only 20-30%, as no strong forcing feature is noted on med range ensembles. Temps will be on the rise, into the 90s Fri into the weekend. TD`s will rise steadily as well, and a potential for heat indices into the upr 90s to low 100s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 145 PM Monday...VFR conditions prevail across the terminals this afternoon as sprawling high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast extends over the southeastern CONUS. Few to sct cu field this afternoon will be short lived, giving way to clear skies and nearly calm winds overnight. Column appears too dry to support fog formation and kept this out of the TAFs, but some offshore strato-cu could drift onshore overnight, bringing potential MVFR cigs to primarily OBX locations. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 3 AM Mon...VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure remaining dominant through the period. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 2 AM Monday...Warm and dry with sub-SCA conditions through the period. Winds will be ESE around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt and 2-4 ft seas. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 3 AM Mon...Sub- SCA through the period with high pressure anchored to the north of ENC. Light to moderate erly flow of 10-15 kt, ocnl gusts to 20 kt expected. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft through mid week. Low pres will develop east of the Bahamas this week and approach the SE Coast (FL/GA) by mid week. Some higher swell may approach and seas possibly exceeding 6 ft Wed night into Thu for the ctrl/srn waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 3 AM Mon...A dry airmass will be in place through mid week, with minimum RH in the 30s and 40s percent, especially away from the coast. This will overlap with breezy E winds at times, and is noteworthy for any ongoing, or planned, fires. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...MS/OJC MARINE...TL/OJC FIRE WEATHER...MHX