Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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943 FXUS62 KMHX 172053 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 453 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will continue to shift further inland and away from the ENC today. Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through next week and keep unsettled conditions across ENC. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 4:30 PM Tuesday...The remnants of PTC #8 are now well inland over SC. An occluded front is draped across NC from west to east and a surface low has formed along the periphery of this boundary, which continues to support shower development mainly north of Highway 70. Activity should wane as we move into the evening hours due to dry air entrainment in the upper levels. Given the saturated soils, light winds, and lack of overnight cloud cover, the environment is primed to support the development of fog and low stratus, especially over the inner coastal plain. Lows will drop to the low to mid 60s across the coastal plain and near 70 along the beaches. The risk of coastal flooding along the inland rivers will wane today, but will persist along coastal locations - see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for more details. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 4:30 PM Tuesday...The upper trough will remain dominant over the eastern US. At the surface, a warm front will be draped across ENC in association with a series of lows across the southeastern US. The greatest chance (15-25%) for showers and thunderstorms associated with this boundary will be across the inner coastal plain tomorrow afternoon. The greatest instability will be displaced from the area most likely to see rainfall, so the severe threat will be low. However, a stronger thunderstorm can`t be ruled out. It will be warm and muggy with highs in the mid-80s and dewpoints in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Tue...Unsettled weather will continue through the period as persistent mid/upper level troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard. This will result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region into next weekend. Thursday into the weekend... Previously mentioned upper trough will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the week while at the surface previously mentioned low is forecast to be to the north and likely dissipated. As we get into the weekend, there remains uncertainty with the forecast as the upper trough over the Eastern Seaboard is forecast to cutoff into an upper low as upper ridging builds across the Northeast. As is typical with upper lows, spread in timing and depth of the feature remains large and forecast confidence remains below average. Either way, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially tied to the diurnal cycle in the afternoons to early evenings is expected across the area into the weekend. Continued onshore flow will keep clouds around the region while temps remain at or below avg. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18z Wednesday/... As of 1:40 PM Tuesday...The bulk of remaining shower and thunderstorm activity is now focused over communities north of Highway 70. We should continue to dry out through the rest of the day, but weak winds and plentiful low-level moisture will keep lower clouds around through the rest of the day. There`s a good signal for fog and low stratus to develop tonight, especially over the inner coastal plain. Given the strong signal in the guidance, it would not be surprising for inland terminals (PGV and OAJ) to spend at least a few hours at IFR or LIFR between midnight and sunrise. The typically reliable GLAMP has IFR ceiling probabilities in the 50-80% range for PGV and 40-60% range for ISO. These terminals also have a 20-30% chance of at least IFR visibilities. The GLAMP has terminals closer to the coast (OAJ and EWN) at a 30-40% chance of MVFR ceilings and a 10-30% chance of MVFR visibilities between midnight and sunrise. However, given the weak wind field and saturated soils, there seems to be a much greater chance at sub-VFR conditions than what guidance is putting forth for these areas. Fog should subside after sunrise, but the low clouds may linger into the late morning. All terminals should be back to VFR by tomorrow afternoon. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 300 AM Tue...Continued unsettled weather will bring a chance for brief/occasional sub-VFR conditions across ENC daily due to widely scattered to scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 3:30 PM Tuesday...Dangerous marine conditions persist due to lingering 6-7 foot seas from former PTC #8. SCAs are in place for all coastal waters until 4 AM Wednesday and seas will decrease to 3-5 ft tomorrow. Winds will remain at 10 kt or less through the period. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 300 AM Tue...Winds should remain generally light /10 kt or less/ through Wed with the flow W-SW Wed, and N on Thu. Northerly winds increase to 10-15 kt Fri then become NE 15-20 kt Sat. Seas will be 3-5 ft Wed, then 2-4 ft Thu and Fri. Seas could build to 4-6 ft Sat due to the increased NE winds. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 3:30 PM Tuesday...In response to the heavy rainfall, river levels are rising across ENC and will continue to do so through mid-week. Flood Warnings are already posted for the New River at Gum Branch and the Northeast Cape Fear near Chinquapin, and further warnings for other rivers may be needed in future forecast cycles. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3:30 PM Tuesday...Coastal flooding will continue to be a risk given the higher than normal astronomical tide cycle. The Coastal Flood Advisories currently go until 10 PM, but with this week being a higher tide cycle, the risk of minor coastal flooding may linger beyond today, and adjustments to the advisories may be needed. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...JME/MS AVIATION...OJC/JME MARINE...OJC/JME HYDROLOGY...MHX TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX