849
FXUS62 KMHX 042037
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
437 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will move into the area today and stall. The
weak front will lift back north early Wednesday as strong cold
front approaches from the west. The front will move through
Friday and Friday night, with slightly cooler and drier
conditions expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...Very isolated showers are ongoing across
the CWA as the seabreeze makes its way inland and the backdoor
cold front remains stalled just to our north. The coastal plain
will have the highest PoPs for the next few hours with chances
decreasing after sunset. The severe threat is low but non-zero
given the weak forcing and lack of shear, but MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg could still support some stronger storms with
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Slight chance PoPs linger
through the overnight period for areas north of HWY 70, the OBX,
and offshore waters, but coverage will be isolated. Lows won`t
be too low tonight with temps only dropping to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday... The stalled boundary will lift north and
high pressure will strengthen offshore. Guidance continues to
trend drier, so PoPs have been cut back once again. Like today,
any shower or thunderstorm development will be isolated to
widely scattered with a low but non-zero severe threat. MLCAPE
will be marginal (500-1000 J/kg) but winds will respond to the
incoming upper-level trough and create slightly better shear
today (20-25 kt). Temps will be toasty with highs around 90
across the coastal plain and mid-80s along the OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected through
Thursday with near seasonable temps. High pressure will
strengthen offshore through late week with a cold front
approaching from the west. A cold front will move through Friday
into Fri night, bringing drier conditions late week into the
weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area early next
week.

Thursday...Greatest coverage still looks like Thursday
afternoon and evening. Weak shear will limit the overall svr
threat, though an isolated strong storm with gusty winds, small
hail and heavy rain will be possible each day. An increase in
heat and humidity is also likely as highs climb into the upper
80s to low 90s each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100
degrees for most of the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Monday...Cold front looks to move through
Friday into Friday night. Iso showers/storm possible Fri, but
most areas will remain dry. 00z guidance shows upper troughing
lingering along the east coast through the weekend, depicting
drier and slightly cooler conditions across eastern NC. More
comfortable airmass expected this weekend with dewpoints falling
into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s. Still a good
amount of uncertainty early next week, with the potential for
another frontal system to impact the area. Will keep sc to
chance pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tue night/...
As of 4 PM Tuesday...A rinse and repeat forecast is on tap.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms stick
around this afternoon with chances decreasing after sunset.
Tomorrow will be more of the same with diurnal convection in the
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected this week,
with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the
terminals. Sub-VFR cigs possible early Thu morning. A cold front
will move through Fri and Fri night.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions will persist through
much of Wednesday. SSE 5-10 kt north of Cape Hatteras and SW
10-15 kt winds south of Cape Hatteras become SW around 10 kt
tonight. Tomorrow afternoon, SW winds increase to 15-20 kt with
gusts nearing 25 kt, mainly across the Pamlico Sound and
northern waters. The wind forecast has trended up and a SCA may
be needed for these waters. Waves will be 2-3 ft through the
period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Light to moderate SSW winds Wed 5-15 kt will
increase to 15-20 kt late Wed afternoon and Wednesday night,
becoming SW 15-25 kt Thursday. SCA conditions possible Wednesday
night and Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday and
Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW
10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Sat 5-15 kt. Seas will
be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft
Thursday, then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri and Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...OJC/CQD
MARINE...OJC/CQD