148
FXUS62 KMHX 040633
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
233 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will move into the area today and stall. The
weak front will lift back north early Wednesday as strong cold
front approaches from the west. The front will move through
Friday and Friday night, with slightly cooler and drier
conditions expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Tue...Made some minor tweaks to the precip
forecast to account for current radar trends with some light
shower activity noted along our northeastern zones heading into
the Pamlico Sound and across our western zones as light shower
activity approaches both areas. Otherwise, minimal changes to
the rest of the forecast.

Prev Disc... Keeping an eye on another weak boundary drifting
south over the VA border with isolated thunder activity, but
upstream environment is likely too stabilized to support these
cells in our area.

Stepped down PoPs considerably from the prior update, now
showing more widespread dry conditions through mid-morning
Tuesday. Overnight lows range form around 70 along the coast to
mid 60s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...With surface high pressure over the
northeast US, a backdoor cold front will sag south into the area
Tuesday. This, along with the afternoon seabreeze, will serve
as the forcing mechanisms to support more shower and
thunderstorm activity. Similarly to today, coverage will likely
be isolated in the morning, become scattered by the afternoon,
and diminish after sunset. It`ll be quite toasty with highs
nearing 90 across the coastal plain with the beaches just
slightly cooler in the low-80s.

As for severe potential, the threat is low given weak effective
shear (20-25 kt) and forcing. Despite these limiting factors, 1000-
1500 J/kg of SBCAPE would still make it possible for some stronger
storms to develop with threats of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
small hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected through
Thursday with near seasonable temps. High pressure will
strengthen offshore through late week with a cold front
approaching from the west. A cold front will move through Friday
into Fri night, bringing drier conditions late week into the
weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area early next
week.

Wednesday through Thursday...The stalled frontal boundary will
continue to lift back north early Wednesday with cold front
approaching from the west and high pressure strengthening
offshore. This will allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to
advect in from the west ahead of a potent upper level trough and
strong cold front. Increasingly unsettled conditions are likely
with a diurnal max in coverage each afternoon. 00z guidance
trending drier for Wed, so lowered pops slightly, keeping high
chances inland and low chance/sc along the immediate coast.
Greatest coverage still looks like Thursday afternoon and
evening. Weak shear will limit the overall svr threat, though
an isolated strong storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy
rain will be possible each day. An increase in heat and humidity
is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s
each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees for most of
the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Monday...Cold front looks to move through
Friday into Friday night. Iso showers/storm possible Fri, but
most areas will remain dry. 00z guidance shows upper troughing
lingering along the east coast through the weekend, depicting
drier and slightly cooler conditions across eastern NC. More
comfortable airmass expected this weekend with dewpoints falling
into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s. Still a good
amount of uncertainty early next week, with the potential for
another frontal system to impact the area. Will keep sc to
chance pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 120 AM Tue... Made little in the way of changes to the
forecast with predominantly VFR conditions expected through the
period. Fog threat still looks to be minimal at best (generally
less than 10%) for the rest of tonight with scattered high
clouds around the area. But, the threat is non zero. It would
likely be patchy nuisance ground fog if it did develop forming
between 09-12Z this morning before dissipating. Even if fog does
develop, it will cause minimal impact to operations.

As we get into this afternoon, typical summer time convective
pattern returns, with more westerly winds in the morning
backing to a southerly direction as the sea breeze advances
inland. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is likely
after 18z tomorrow along the seabreeze and along an incoming
backdoor cold front. Otherwise as we get into the evening hours
shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly wane in coverage
and intensity with the loss of daytime heating.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected this week,
with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the
terminals. Sub-VFR cigs possible early Thu morning. A cold front
will move through Fri and Fri night.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Southwest winds at 10-15 kt will turn
slightly more westerly tomorrow morning and decrease to 5-10 kt.
By tomorrow afternoon, they`ll be back to the southwest at
10-15 kt. Waves will be around 2 ft through the period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
period but most of the activity will reside over the coastal
plain and Gulf Stream.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Light to moderate SSW winds Wed 5-15 kt will
increase to 15-20 kt late Wed afternoon and Wednesday night,
becoming SW 15-25 kt Thursday. SCA conditions possible Wednesday
night and Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday and
Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW
10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Sat 5-15 kt. Seas will
be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft
Thursday, then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri and Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RCF/CQD
MARINE...OJC/CQD