Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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955 FXUS62 KMHX 240003 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 803 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will reside across the piedmont while a series of upper level shortwaves will generate multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. A stronger cold front will move through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 2000 Thursday...Seabreeze is currently about halfway through our Wern-most with convection from the W approaching the FA. The area out of ahead of the seabreeze will be the places to watch for any severe threat this evening. Bulk of the forecast remains on track. SPC continues a marginal risk of severe across Wern counties as a few storms this evening could bring damaging wind gusts and perhaps large hail. As we move through the evening, instability will wane and the severe threat should end by midnight but showers and isolated tstms may continue through the overnight as additional mid level energy pushes across the area. Muggy overnight with lows generally in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 4 PM Thursday...A moist and unstable airmass remains across the region Friday with another mid level shortwave and sfc front approach from the NW. Shower chances linger through the morning but expect greater coverage during the afternoon, around 30-50%, when instability is maximized. The severe threat will be minimal with shear around 20-25 kt and SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Warm and muggy conditions will persist but low level thicknesses are several meters lower than today and expect highs in the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 4 AM Thursday... Key Messages: - Weather remains unsettled for the weekend and into early next week with small chances (20-30%) each day through Tuesday - Above normal temperatures for much of the period with inland areas in the mid to upper 80s and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast. Much of the long term forecast will be characterized by unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms possible each through midweek before drier conditions prevail. The period will begin on Friday night with a weak frontal system with the parent high over the Canadian Maritimes gradually sinking into the Carolinas. By the time it arrives, there will not be much of an airmass change with warm and moist conditions remaining prevalent. While this is happening the tail end of the departing system will combine with an approaching system from the west creating a stationary front that will feature several shortwaves pulsing along it through the weekend. While no day will likely be a washout, periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected particularly during diurnal peak heating. Along with the rain chances, temperatures are expected to be above normal and heat index values creeping into the low to mid 90s, especially inland locations on Sunday and Monday afternoons. These two day will present the hottest conditions before a bit of relief although still warm for the middle part of the week. For next week model confidence is very low as attention turns to a slow meandering low pressure system over the upper midwest that will bring the next wave of moisture in from the west. Forecasted precipitation chances are low for now due to the uncertainty but would not be surprised to see them increase in future iterations of the forecast as models get a better idea of how to handle on what right now is a very disorganized system at best. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 1930 Thursday...VFR flight cats expected much of the period but isolated to scattered convection may bring periods of sub- VFR this evening and continuing into Friday as mid level shortwaves move across rtes with a moist and unstable airmass remaining in place. Stronger storms will be possible this evening across western rtes which could bring strong wind gusts and hail. Light winds and decent cloud cover will limit fog development but cannot rule out patchy shallow fog at some locations late tonight but probability for widespread fog very low (<10%). Lull in precip chances early morning FRI but those will build again through the day. Outside of convection FRI expecting VFR flight cats but CIGs will be flirting with MVFR with cloud bases ~FL030-040. Continue mention of SCT025 and introduced VCSH for all terminals in the afternoon FRI. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 4 AM Thursday...For Friday and beyond expect rain and thunder chances each day with afternoon hours being most susceptible to convection. Southwest winds will prevail for much of the period with speeds of 5- 10 kts gusting to 15. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 430 PM Thursday...High pressure will remain offshore through the short term bringing SW winds around 15 kt or less. Could see gusts to around 20 kt during the afternoon and evening hours when thermal gradients are tightest. Seas will be around 2-3 ft. Thunderstorm chances will increase this evening and continue through Friday as series of weak systems move across the region. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 4 AM Thursday...SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20 kt, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms, will stick around through the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/CEB SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...RTE AVIATION...RTE/SK/CEB MARINE...RTE/SK