237
FXUS62 KMHX 271909
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
309 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will then move through late tonight and Tuesday.
The next front moves through late Wednesday night or early
Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Mon...Latest analysis shows low pressure over the
Great Lakes with attendant cold front moving towards the
Appalachians, while shortwave aloft continues to move through
the Carolinas. Main concern later this afternoon and into
tonight is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Initial line of convection continues to weaken moving off the
coast early this afternoon. There are still some uncertainties
with what impact the earlier convection will have. However, strong
diurnal heating is leading to destabilization over the coastal
plain with temps climbing back into the upper 80s. Latest
mesoanalysis shows ML CAPE values 2-2500 J/kg, along with strong
deep layer shear 40-50 kt and steep mid level lapse rates.
Environment through the first part of tonight will be
supportive of tornadoes, damaging winds (60-70+ mph wind gusts),
and large hail. 0-1km SRH is forecast to peak around 100-150
m2/s2 which would support a tornado risk, especially where/if
supercells develop, coupled with favorable hodographs. This risk
could be maximized along any residual boundaries and/or the
afternoon seabreeze. There appears to be a focused area across
the northern half of the cwa, where guidance is hinting at the
greatest tornado potential. Svr threat will likely continue into
the first part of tonight, with the greatest window through 11
PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM Mon...The cold front will stall near the coast Tue
as the base of the upper trough approaches from the NW. The
front combined with a pinned seabreeze should be convergence to
generate scattered showers, with best chances in the afternoon.
Showers confined to the coast early with chances increasing
toward HWY17 in the afternoon as seabreeze tries to propagate
inland, likely having a difficult time with low level westerly
flow developing. Highs in the 80s, though will feel a bit cooler
than past several days, esp inland with dewpoints grad falling
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 0400 Monday...Clearing through the week as cool high
pressure builds in.

Rest of Workweek...Upper trough persists with shortwaves
passing through the base of the trough Wednesday and again on
Thursday with weak SFC trough developing inland behind the
front. This troughing inland will delay the arrival of the SFC
high from the NW, keeping temps fairly warm Wed. Temps cool end
of the week as the high pressure begins spilling over the area,
MaxTs in upper 70s, MinTs in the 50s. Forecast remains dry
through this period.

Weekend...Upper trough swings through the East Coast and
offshore with SFC almost directly overhead Saturday morning
pushing offshore through the weekend. Get back to warm Serly
flow regime early next week ahead of the next front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Mon...VFR conditions currently across the
terminals. Initial line of convection has moved east of the
terminals early this afternoon, with additional storms expected
later this afternoon and tonight. With these storms there is a
higher risk of 50kt+ wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. At
this time the best window for that looks like 21-3z. Sub- VFR
conditions can be expected where TSRA occur as well. Late
tonight, an area of low CIGs may develop in the wake of any TSRA
activity.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 400 AM Monday...Showers and thunderstorms are expected
possible Tues with a drying trend setting up for the remainder
of the workweek. Periods of sub- VFR conditions are possible but
flight cats expected to remain VFR outside of convection.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Mon...Latest obs show moderate SSW winds 10-20 kt
with seas 2-3 ft. Southerly flow will continue to steadily
increase through the afternoon, peaking this evening at 15-25kt.
SCA continues for the waters, sounds and rivers with potential
for several hours of 25 kt gusts and with seas possibly building
to 4-6 ft over the outer central waters. As the cold front
approaches tonight, the gradient may relax a bit with winds grad
diminishing towards sunrise. Front will stall near of along the
coast Tue as moderate S/SW winds continue with seas subsiding
to 2-4 ft. First round of thunderstorms continues to move
through early this afternoon, with additional storms likely to
impact the waters later this afternoon into tonight. Where
thunderstorms occur, there is the potential for 40-60 kt gusts,
hail, and waterspouts.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 0400 Monday...The front finally pushes offshore
overnight/early Wed. SWerly winds 10-15G20kt. Winds briefly
turn Nerly behind the front early Wed before becoming SWerly
again as SFC trough approaches and moves through Wed night,
turning winds Nerly for the remainder of the work week. Seas
generally falling through the week; 2-4ft Tues, 2-3ft Wed, 1-3ft
late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-136-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CQD/CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB