161
FXUS62 KMLB 240615
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
215 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Atlc ridge axis has slipped a little further south, located near
Lake Okeechobee, resulting in a light S to SW wind flow through
14Z-15Z around 5 knots with mainly VFR conds. A wind shift out of
the SE will occur at coastal terminals btwn 16Z-18Z around 10
knots. The sea breeze should spark isold to sct SHRA/TSRA just
inland from the coast so have maintained VC term for coastal
terminals aft 15Z. Confidence and coverage not high enough to
warrant TEMPO there. Expect an increase in storm coverage over the
north interior aft 19Z assocd with boundary collisions so have
added a TEMPO for MVFR CIGs/VSBYs in TSRA at MCO/SFB/LEE. Chose a
3-hr window for each but confidence is low on the exact timing.
Adjustments may be needed in later TAF packages.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Back to a more seasonal diurnal pattern that will likely continue
into next week. Weak steering flow with ample moisture, daytime
heating, and boundary collisions. Primary convective threats
continue to be occasional to frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours leading to minor
and nuisance flooding locally. Local rainfall totals also between
1-4 inches in some spots. Boundary collisions and deep moisture
may keep some ISOLD-WDLY SCT convective activity going into mid-
late evening, esp areas not worked over by earlier precip or
locations able to recover and destabilize, else mostly dry over
land overnight with clouds thinning. Light S/SW winds. Overnight
mins in the 70s with conditions humid.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Overnight-Monday... South to southeast winds at around 10 to
15kts are forecast diminish into Monday morning at 5 to 10kts
before backing southeast into the mid morning and afternoon.
Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop
into Monday morning over the local Atlantic with offshore moving
showers/storms expected in the evening. The main hazards
associated with lightning storms will be occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, heavy rainfall, and wind gusts up to 35mph.
Seas are forecast to build to 2 to 3 ft with up to 4 ft over the
offshore Volusia county waters tonight.

Tuesday-Thursday... Light southwest to west flow develops over
the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each
afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas
remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well
offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  93  76 /  60  30  70  40
MCO  93  76  92  76 /  70  30  70  30
MLB  91  75  91  76 /  50  30  60  40
VRB  90  75  91  75 /  50  20  50  30
LEE  94  77  94  77 /  70  30  70  30
SFB  94  76  94  76 /  70  30  70  40
ORL  93  77  93  77 /  70  30  70  30
FPR  90  74  91  74 /  60  20  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly