Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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466 FXUS62 KMLB 191852 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 252 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 236 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Coverage of SHRA has increased across ECFL, prompting reinstatementof prevailing -SHRA to all TAFs except KDAB. VIS should remain mostly VFR, but brief MVFR-IFR reduction will be possible. Might need TEMPOs at KMCO/KISM if coverage continues to increase, resulting in longer periods of impacts. Inland TAFs switch to VCSH by around 02Z as chances of onshore moving SHRA reaching the terminals, while -SHRA continues at coastal terminals (KDAB picks up -SHRA). Inland terminals pick -SHRA back up Thursday morning as coverage increases again. Erly winds increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts again this afternoon settle to NE-ENE at 10-15 kts overnight, remaining gusty at the coast. Should see some reduction in winds Thursday, but still picking up to at least 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts in the afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A batch of showers and embedded lightning storms continues to trek west into portions of Osceola and Orange counties this morning, after producing 1-2" of rain in portions of St. Lucie, Indian River, and Brevard counties (according to 3-hour MRMS estimates). Elsewhere, showers are isolated in nature and will likely remain that way through the day, after the main swath of rain pushes west of our area in the next couple of hours. A couple of embedded storms cannot be ruled out through the afternoon as additional activity over the Atlantic pushes toward the coast. PoPs and thunder chances have been adjusted to reflect the latest radar/satellite trends. Also, temperatures have stayed a few degrees cooler due to rain and associated cloud cover. The forecast was updated to account for this change, lowering highs by a degree or so everywhere. Sunshine may take some time to emerge early in the afternoon, so trends will continue to be monitored for additional (downward) adjustments. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Today-Tonight (modified previous)...Hazardous boating conditions will persist, with onshore winds 20-25kts and gusts to around 30kts. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the local Atlantic waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9ft tonight and could approach 10ft offshore by daybreak Thursday. Scattered showers will continue to drift onshore through tonight, with a few lightning storms possible. Thursday-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions will persist through late week, with seas 7-9ft Thursday possibly approaching 10ft offshore. Breezy ENE winds up to 15-20kts will linger, though will be lower than Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisories have been extended through Thursday night. Improving boating conditions to end the work week and will continue into this weekend, as winds and seas diminish. Lingering seas 4-5ft Friday afternoon will become 2-3ft by Sunday. Increasingly southeasterly winds are forecast at 10-15kts. Daily shower and lightning storm chances will continue, however. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 76 86 76 89 / 40 50 50 50 MCO 75 88 75 92 / 30 40 20 50 MLB 78 87 76 89 / 40 40 20 50 VRB 77 87 75 89 / 40 40 20 50 LEE 76 90 76 94 / 20 30 20 50 SFB 75 88 75 92 / 30 40 30 50 ORL 76 88 76 92 / 30 40 20 50 FPR 77 87 74 88 / 40 40 20 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555- 575. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schaper AVIATION...Haley