543
FXUS62 KMLB 230507
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
107 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Onshore-moving showers will continue to affect MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA
overnight through the morning hours before shifting to only the
Treasure Coast terminals by afternoon. Elsewhere, prevailing dry
conditions and VFR. Light NNE winds steadily veer toward the E
through the day. A few gusts 12-18 KT in the afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Elevated Low level easterly flow and a band of low level moisture
from near the Cape southward will continue to transport isolated
to scattered showers onshore through the remainder of the night.
Isolated storms will also be possible over the coastal waters,
with one or two storms potentially pushing onshore, mainly south
of Melbourne. Rain chances continue to range around 20-30 percent
across Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, mostly
dry conditions forecast into tonight, with skies mostly clear to
partly cloudy. Model guidance continues to indicate greatest
potential for any fog development across north Florida into late
tonight. However, may see some patchy fog expand into areas
northwest of I-4 through Lake and NW Volusia counties toward
daybreak Monday. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s,
with upper 70s possible along the immediate coast south of the
Cape that maintain an onshore wind.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Through Tuesday...Surface high pressure over the Deep South
gradually transitions eastward into the western Atlc. Present
NERLY winds will veer ERLY overnight into Mon becoming ESE/SE on
Tue. Wind speeds will remain AOB 15 kts thru Tue morning, then
increase 12-18 kts areawide Tue afternoon-night. ISOLD-WDLY SCT
shower/lightning storm chances - highest values south from the
Cape. Seas generally 3-4 ft, with up to 5ft possible offshore/Gulf
Stream beginning Tue afternoon-night.

.Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion...

Wednesday-Thursday...There is considerable uncertainty in the
forecast for mid to late week. High pressure shifts farther eastward
into the Atlantic, as a tropical disturbance given a 80% chance of
formation over the northwest Caribbean enters the Gulf of Mexico.
Local weather will be highly dependent on the track of this system.
While it to too early to discuss what, if any impacts, this could
bring to the east central Florida waters, boating conditions look to
deteriorate from around mid into late week, as southeasterly winds
increase and seas build. Shower and lightning storm chances will
increase, as well. Be sure to stay updated on the latest forecast
for any changes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  75  90  76 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  91  74  92  76 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  89  78  89  79 /  20   0  10  10
VRB  89  76  90  78 /  30  10  20  20
LEE  92  73  93  76 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  91  73  91  76 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  92  75  92  76 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  89  76  89  78 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Heil