Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
161 FXUS62 KMLB 071352 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 952 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... Issued at 951 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to influence the state of Florida. In the mid/upper levels, analysis charts show a ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeastern US with 500mb heights at 582dm over Florida. This morning`s XMR sounding showed substantial dry air in the mid and upper levels with low instability and shear. Much of east central Florida will remain dry through today with mostly sunny skies expected to become partly sunny into the afternoon. South winds will back onshore into the afternoon at 10-15mph with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland. Isolated low topped showers with a few lighting strikes are possible (PoPs ~20-30%) this afternoon and evening as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and collides with the west coast sea breeze over western Orange, western Volusia, Lake, and northwest Osceola counties. The warming trend will continue today with afternoon highs on track to reach the mid 80s to low 90s along the coast and the low 90s across the interior west of I-95. Heat index values will be slightly higher (~2-5 degrees) than temperatures with dew points in the low to upper 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 951 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions are forecast with high pressure over the western continuing to influence the Southeast US. South winds at 5-10kts will back onshore from the southeast into the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland at 8-14kts. Isolated showers with a few lighting strikes are possible with VCSH mentioned at KLEE, KMCO, KISM, KSFB this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 951 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Currently-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions are expected with high pressure over the western Atlantic. South winds are forecast to back southeast into the afternoon at 10 to 15kts. Seas are forecast to build to 2-3ft with up to 4 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard counties overnight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Today/Tonight...Low level ridge axis will shift south and be located across central FL. This will promote a more southerly flow, turning onshore (E/SE) and becoming breezy (15-20 mph) along the coast this afternoon. The sea breeze will be a bit slower pushing inland so the collision with the west coast breeze will occur a little farther east than previous days, roughly from Lake George to Poinciana between 6 and 8pm. This should result in scattered showers and isolated storms and have drawn a stripe of 30 PoPs down the spine of the peninsula, including Orlando metro. A N to NW steering flow should keep the showers and isolated storms over the interior so coastal sections should remain dry. Convection should diminish before midnight with a quiet overnight. Temps aloft not very cold (-8C) as mid level ridge builds over the area but assocd mid level drying will produce DCAPE above 1000 J/KG so gusty winds will be possible with any deep convection. Max temps a couple degrees warmer today...reaching lower 90s interior as well as inland portions of the coastal counties (west of I 95) while immediate coast will hold in the mid to upper 80s. Wednesday-Thursday...The mid-level ridge extending from the Bay of Campeche northeast across Florida continues to build through Thursday, peaking in the afternoon to evening. At the surface, high pressure settles across the Atlantic subtropics, as the ridge axis extending across South Florida continues to drift further south. Surface flow veers from southerly Wednesday to westerly Thursday in response, which combined with stacked high pressure and subsidence aloft, will result in the hottest temperatures of the year so far. Inland, afternoon high soar into the M90s Wednesday and the M-U90s Thursday, with southern Osceola and the adjacent counties looking exceptionally toasty with highs forecast around 98F. Wednesday`s forecast highs come pretty close to the NBM 90th percentile, meaning it`s more likely for these highs to be over cooked than under cooked, but there`s a little more spread on Thursday, and slightly greater possibility for highs to tick up an extra degree or two more than currently advertised. Along the coastal corridor, highs generally in the M-U80s near the coast (mostly in the U80s) and 90- L90s along I-95 Wednesday, which could drop later in the afternoon once the sea breeze develops, but more southwesterly flow Thursday will hold off the sea breeze, allowing highs to climb in the U80s-90 near the coast and the L90s along I-95. Global models are still advertising rain chances on Wednesday, but soundings continue to show very dry air in the low and upper levels, so have kept these rain chances capped at a silent 10 pct. Winds Wednesday south to southwest 5-10 mph, becoming southeast 10-15 mph along the coast with the pinned sea breeze, ease to 5-10 mph overnight. More southwesterly flow Thursday will accelerate the west coast sea breeze, resulting in winds southwesterly to westerly 10-15 mph across the interior in the afternoon as the west coast sea breeze reaches those locations, while the the coastal corridor stays southerly to southeasterly 10-15 mph in the pinned east coast sea breeze. A bit more of an overnight breeze Thursday as southwesterly winds hold around 10 mph. Overnight lows well above normal in the low 70s. Friday-Tuesday...Ridging aloft is flattened by a substantial mid- upper level trough digging down the central and eastern CONUS, with flow over Florida becoming generally zonal. A weakening cold front drops into Florida late Friday into Saturday, shunting high pressure over the Atlantic out to sea, and bringing some much needed chances for rain. However, rain won`t come before one more very hot day Friday with highs in the 90s, even along the barrier islands, as southwesterly flow ahead of the front becomes breezy. Some disagreement in moisture placement along the front between models, and thus decreasing confidence in rain chances, with the GFS sweeping the highest moisture north of Florida, and the ECM bringing it on down to us. Kept PoPs a conservative 20-30 pct for now. The front stalls to the south, keeping 20-40 pct rain chances in the forecast through the weekend, then high pressure sliding from the deep south into the adjacent Atlantic waters looks to bring the stationary front and associated moisture back over central Florida, further increasing rain chances through much of next week. Temperatures slowly work their way back towards normal across most of ECFL, but remain above normal across the south through early next week, with highs ranging from the 80s near the coast to the M90s near Lake Okeechobee on Saturday, slowly dropping to U70s-M80s near the coast and M-U80s inland Tuesday. Overnight lows in the 70s ease back down into the 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Wednesday-Saturday...Generally favorable boating conditions from the morning through the early evening, but late evening wind surges will result in poor boating conditions during the overnight this week. The ridge axis of high pressure draped across the Atlantic subtropics drifts from Central to South Florida as a cold front approaches, reaching the waters late Friday. The front pushes through overnight into Saturday, stalling near the Straits of Florida late Saturday. Gradient winds veer from SW-S Wednesday and Thursday to SW Friday ahead of the front, becoming S-SE and increasing to 10-15 kts in the afternoon once the sea breeze develops. Winds then further increasing to 15-20 kts in the late evening and early overnight, before returning to S-SW around 10 kts early in the morning. Once the front passes, winds veer to the NW-N, but a relatively loose pressure gradient will result in speeds 5-10 kts behind the front, becoming variable at times Saturday afternoon. Isolated to scattered lightning storms possible from Friday onward. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 70 91 71 / 20 10 10 0 MCO 92 71 95 73 / 30 20 10 10 MLB 87 70 89 72 / 10 10 10 0 VRB 88 68 91 71 / 10 10 10 0 LEE 91 71 94 73 / 20 10 10 0 SFB 93 70 94 73 / 30 20 10 0 ORL 93 72 95 74 / 30 20 10 0 FPR 88 68 90 68 / 10 10 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling LONG TERM...Sedlock AVIATION...Fehling