628
FXUS62 KMLB 041015
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
615 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Fire sensitive conditions continue with a moderate drought

- Shower and storm chances increase mid to late week with
  isolated strong storms forecast Thursday

- Temperatures rise to near records late week with Heat Index
  values in the 100 to 108 degree range

Currently-Today... High pressure centered to the northeast of
Florida over the western Atlantic continues to produce onshore
flow over east central Florida. Current local radar imagery shows
mostly dry conditions over east central Florida with isolated
showers offshore of the Treasure Coast. Winds are forecast to
increase into the afternoon from the east at 10-15mph with gusts
to 20-25mph. The NBM is persistent in generating high rain chances
for much of this week compared to MOS and HREF guidance. The greatest
forcing continues to be over west Florida, therefore PoPs have
been reduced closer to MOS guidance. Isolated diurnally driven
showers are forecast with a few lighting strikes possible (PoPs ~
20-30%) over the the western interior, as well as the Treasure
Coast this afternoon and early evening with chances dwindling
after sunset. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees
are forecast near the coast and the low to mid 90s over the
interior to the west of I-95. Mostly clear skies are expected to
become partly sunny into the afternoon.


Tonight... Rain chances will decrease after sunset with isolated
showers and lighting storms (PoPs ~ 20-30%) forecast near the
Treasure Coast and the local Atlantic waters. Low temperatures are
forecast to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s under mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday-Friday... A similar forecast to the previous couple of
days is expected with the greatest forcing to the west of central
Florida. PoPs have been reduced again with MOS and HREF guidance
much lower than the NBM. Isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon and
early evening, however much of east central Florida will likely remain
dry. Moisture (PWATs in the 1.8-2.1" range) is forecast to
increase Thursday ahead of a shortwave trough that`s expected to
track across east central Florida into the late afternoon and
evening. The 00z guidance shows moderate instability and cooling
temperatures aloft at 500mb (-8 to -9C), as well as steepening
mid level lapse rates and 20-30kts of 0-6km shear which would be
supportive of a strong storm or two Thursday afternoon and into
the evening. The main hazards associated with any strong storms
that develop will be occasional to frequent lighting strikes,
wind gusts to 40mph, small hail, and moderate to brief heavy
rainfall. Drier air will filter in on Friday behind the trough
with isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms forecast
in the afternoon. Onshore flow will become less predominate into
Thursday with west-southwest flow increasing into Friday. West to
southwest winds are forecast to back east-southeast at around
10-15mph into the afternoon Thursday near the coast and slightly
west of I-95.

Afternoon highs on Wednesday are forecast to reach the upper 80s
to low 90s near the coast and the low to mid 90s inland with heat
index values in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Temperatures will
continue to increase into with late week with highs in the low to
mid 90s Thursday and the mid to upper 90s Friday (near records)
with heat index values as high as 100-108 degrees. Lows are
expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Saturday-Monday... Offshore flow will persist Saturday. Diurnally
sea breeze driven isolated to scattered showers and lighting
storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon Saturday and
Sunday as winds back onshore near the coast and slightly west of
I-95. Shower and storm chances are expected to increase into next
week with the GFS and CMC in agreement that low pressure will
move northeast over south-central or southern Florida in the
afternoon and evening. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the
low to upper 90s with heat index values in the 98-107 degree
range. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s are forecast.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Currently-Today... High pressure centered to the northeast of
Florida will continue to produce onshore flow over east central
Florida. Favorable boating conditions are expected. Onshore east
winds will increase into the afternoon at 10-14kts. Isolated to
scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast this afternoon
and into the early overnight hours. Seas are forecast to build to
1-3ft with up to 4ft over the offshore Brevard county waters.

Wednesday-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast
outside of showers and lightning storms. Isolated to scattered
showers and lightning storms are forecast into the afternoon and
evening Wednesday and Friday. Scattered showers and lighting
storms are forecast Thursday which will be capable of occasional
to frequent cloud to water lighting strikes, wind gusts to 40mph,
and small hail. East winds will increase into the afternoon at
8-14kts Wednesday and then veer south-southwest overnight
Wednesday night and Thursday night before backing onshore into
Thursday afternoon. Offshore winds are expected to back south-
southeast Friday and Saturday afternoons at 10-15kts. Seas are
forecast to build to 1-3ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Today-Saturday... Fire sensitive conditions will continue with a
moderate drought and minimal rain chances, in addition to minimum
RH values in the upper 30s to low 40% range over west-central
Florida this afternoon and the low to mid 40s through Friday.
Diurnally driven isolated showers and lightning storms are
forecast this afternoon with the greatest chance over the western
interior (20-30%), as well as the Treasure Coast to Okeechobee
county. Rain chances increase mid to late week with scattered
showers and lightning storms forecast. Minimum RH values are
forecast to drop to near critical values Saturday and into the
weekend. East winds are expected to increase each afternoon at 10
to 15mph before west to southwest flow develops with the sea
breeze pushing inland near the coast and across the eastern
interior Thursday and Friday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Pattern similar to yesterday, with onshore flow prevailing and
lower than normal rain chances expected as greatest shower/storm
coverage will focus toward west central FL with any late day sea
breeze collisions. Based off coverage yesterday and CAM guidance,
have kept any mention of VCSH/VCTS out of northern TAF sites.
However, did add a brief VCSH mention for 14-18Z from VRB-SUA
where there will be a little more moisture and potential for brief
shower development with the onset of the east coast sea breeze.
Should any isolated showers/storms develop and move across any
terminals from late morning through this afternoon, tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions will occur. Otherwise, VFR conditions should largely
dominate.

Easterly winds around 5-10 knots will again increase to around 10-14
knots with some higher gusts to 15-20 knots possible behind the
inland moving east coast sea breeze. Winds then diminish to
5 knot or less overnight tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Record high temperatures for June 7th and 8th.

DAB 7-Jun 97 1985     8-Jun  99 1985
LEE 7-Jun 96 2008     8-Jun  96 1985
SFB 7-Jun 100 1998    8-Jun  97 1985
MCO 7-Jun 98 1927     8-Jun  99 1985
MLB 7-Jun 95 2014     8-Jun  97 1980
VRB 7-Jun 98 1986     8-Jun  95 1995
FPR 7-Jun 95 1998     8-Jun  95 1949

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  71  89  72 /  10  10  30  10
MCO  91  71  94  73 /  20  10  40  20
MLB  87  74  89  74 /  20  10  30  20
VRB  88  72  89  73 /  20  20  30  20
LEE  93  73  94  74 /  20  10  40  20
SFB  91  71  94  73 /  20  10  40  10
ORL  92  73  94  75 /  20  10  40  20
FPR  88  71  89  72 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Weitlich