435
FXUS62 KMLB 170523
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
123 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Will monitor for patchy fog/low stratus (low confidence) development
overnight and early Tue morning, otherwise continued mainly VFR
outside of afternoon/evening convection ~ MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. Should
any fog/stratus develop, expect burn-off by around mid-morning. Some
"Vicinity" wording in place for later convection and will
accommodate TEMPO groups later on as necessary. Appears greatest
convective coverage may be south of KMCO. Light/variable winds
will transition onshore in the afternoon as the sea breeze
develops and pushes well inland by late in the day. Storm steering
flow today will be toward the ENE at 10-15 kts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A line of scattered showers and isolated lightning storms that
developed along boundary collisions near the stalled frontal
boundary extends from Polk County into Osceola, Brevard, and
northern Indian River Counties. While individual cells are
generally moving to the east-southeast at 15-20 mph, the line
itself is mostly stationary, and there is a small chance for
storms or heavy showers to get hung up on a boundary and produce
locally high rainfall amounts. Occasional to frequent cloud to
ground lightning and gusts to 40 mph will also be possible. In
addition, with modest bulk shear and strong surface convergence
along outflow boundaries, a funnel cloud or even a waterspout
cannot be ruled out. HRRR seems to be handling this activity the
best, albeit 2-4 hours to slow, so generally used that guidance
with temporal correction to make some adjustments to forecast
PoPs. Expect this activity to push offshore over the next few
hours, with maybe a very slight shift to the south.

Otherwise, no significant changes to a mostly quiet overnight
forecast. Only other weather concern continues to be patchy fog
development across the interior in the early morning hours. Winds
light northeasterly to easterly, becoming variable/calm at times,
under mostly cloud skies, with overnight lows in the L-M70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Tonight...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue over the
coastal waters from elevated swells from PTC8. Will allow the
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) over the nearshore waters, north of
Sebastian Inlet to drop off early at 4 PM, as seas at buoys
41009/41070 have remained around 6 feet. However, lingering seas
up to 7-8 feet are still forecast offshore, so will maintain SCA
headlines through late tonight for the 20-60nm offshore zones.
Nearshore, will keep exercise caution headlines for seas up to 6
feet. Winds will be relatively light and somewhat variable with
weak frontal boundary across the area, and speeds will generally
range around 5-10 knots.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will still be possible
over the waters.

Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas subside
Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Variable
winds continue into late week while remaining 10 kts or less.
Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  91  73 /  30  10  40  30
MCO  91  75  92  74 /  50  10  50  30
MLB  89  75  90  74 /  50  20  40  40
VRB  91  73  91  73 /  50  30  50  40
LEE  89  74  91  74 /  40  10  50  20
SFB  89  73  91  74 /  50  10  50  30
ORL  91  75  92  75 /  50  10  50  30
FPR  91  73  91  73 /  50  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Sedlock