161
FXUS64 KMOB 062328
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
628 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The earlier isolated convection that developed across portions of
our region has dissipated as of early this evening. VFR conditions
are forecast to remain prevalent across the area through Friday
afternoon. Very patchy fog development is still possible mainly
along and north of the I-10 corridor late tonight through early
Friday morning with localized visibility reductions to at least
MVFR thresholds. Winds generally become calm or light/variable
overnight before turning northwesterly to northerly between 5-10
knots over most locations on Friday. The exception will be a
southwesterly wind up to around 10 knots near the immediate coast
Friday afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A shortwave trof currently over the forecast area moves well away
from the area through Friday within the deep layer northwesterly
flow pattern over the region. Abundant moisture currently in place
over the area trends progressively drier through the period, with
precipitable water values near 1.75-2.0 inches decreasing to
1.0-1.5 inches by Friday afternoon. There are a number of surface
features to contend with in this forecast, the first two of which
are a weak outflow boundary oriented near the I-65 corridor and
another weak boundary, possibly a left over outflow boundary,
which extends near a PNS-79J line. Both of these weak boundaries
are anticipated to progress slowly eastward across the remainder
of the forecast area through the afternoon. In addition to these
two features, a weak surface trof extends from southeast Louisiana
into northeast Alabama and crosses Wayne and Choctaw counties.
This weak surface trof is anticipated to linger near this position
through the early evening hours. A more well defined cold front
meanwhile approaches from the north and eventually catches up with
the weak surface trof, with the frontal boundary then moving into
the coastal counties on Friday and stalling. For the rest of this
afternoon, current trends and convective guidance point to
coverage associated with the weak surface features remaining
scattered at best, so have updated to lower pops to chance to good
chance, with the good chance pops mainly located east of I-65.
Have gone with slight chance pops generally along and east of I-65
early this evening, but otherwise dry conditions prevail tonight
into Friday as progressively drier air flows into the area. An
exception to the pops on Friday will be slight chance pops near
the coast in the late afternoon, where the stalled frontal
boundary and marginally sufficient deep layer moisture may allow
for some isolated convection to develop. Lows tonight range from
the upper 60s inland to the lower/mid 70s near the coast. Highs on
Friday will be mostly in the lower 90s. A low risk of rip
currents is expected for tonight and Friday. /29

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

To close out the week, the global models and short range ensembles
indicate a trof axis at high levels extending from the Mid-
Atlantic coast to the eastern Gulf while an upper ridge is
positioned over TX. Between the two pressure features is a high
level northwest flow with a signal of deep layer dry air
overspreading the area Friday night. The TX upper ridge slides
eastward over the Gulf over the weekend. Larger scale sinking with
the upper ridge and limited deep layer moisture with PWAT values
at or less than 1.00" Saturday favors a rain-free day. Sunday, the
deep layer moisture signal of PWAT does edge slightly higher to
around 1.25". However, the presence of the deep layer ridge aloft
would continue to support keeping a mention of PoPs out of the
forecast. At the surface, a weakly defined pressure trof/front
slips southward to the south of the coast Saturday and eventually
dissipates Sunday.

Daytime temperatures heating up with highs Saturday and Sunday
lifting into the lower to mid 90s. Lower daytime RH Saturday favors
heat indices staying close to the actual highs, but on Sunday, heat
indices look to be approaching 100 to 103 in some areas as daytime
humidity is slightly higher then.

A decreasing tidal cycle and a weak pressure pattern, resulting in
light winds, will keep the rip current risk at low levels through
the weekend. /10

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The 06.12Z weather models indicate another southern stream
impulse sliding eastward out of TX and with deep moisture
modifying ahead of its approach supports a return chance of
summer-time storms Monday. Upper trof slips eastward across the
Lower MS River Valley into the middle of next week bringing a
return to a more unsettled period with a chance of showers and
storms. Very possible we will see convective systems dropping
south and eastward over the local area middle of next week, but
timing of these this far out is of low confidence. Clouds and
better rain chances would lend support on tapering back daily
highs mostly into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

No impacts are expected through the period except for higher
winds and seas near storms. Light to occasionally moderate onshore
winds become northerly each night then return to an onshore flow
through Saturday. A similar pattern follows for Sunday into
Tuesday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      70  93  67  92  71  93  73  91 /  20  10   0   0   0   0  10  40
Pensacola   73  91  71  90  73  92  77  91 /  20  20   0  10   0  10  10  50
Destin      76  89  73  89  75  89  78  90 /  20  20  10   0   0   0  10  50
Evergreen   68  93  63  92  67  95  71  90 /  10  10   0   0   0   0  10  50
Waynesboro  68  91  63  92  68  94  71  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  40
Camden      68  90  61  90  66  94  70  87 /  10   0   0   0   0   0  10  40
Crestview   69  95  65  94  67  96  71  93 /  20  20   0   0   0   0  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob