100
FXUS64 KMOB 150501
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1201 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions were noted across the area at the time of issuance this
evening. Ceilings will begin to lower after midnight to MVFR/IFR
thresholds mainly across interior portions of the area with VFR
conditions prevailing along the coast. VFR to MVFR ceilings will
linger during the day Sunday as scattered to numerous showers and
storms develop. Light and variable winds overnight become light
and easterly/southeasterly on Sunday. /14


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The remnant low from Francine continues to meander slowly over
northern Mississippi this afternoon and will continue this pattern
through the next 24 hours or so. An axis of convergence
stretching from the surface low, southeastward through southern
Alabama was generating isolated to scattered showers, with more
coverage noted over eastern Alabama, lingering from a heavier band
from this morning. The low will continue to pivot over
Mississippi through the next couple of days, keeping daily chances
of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Through
the rest of the day and into the overnight hours, expect
shower/storm coverage to remain isolated to scattered, aided by
diurnal heating. This activity will diminish somewhat this
evening, but isolated thunderstorms will remain possible.
Seasonably warm temperatures will also persist, with highs topping
out in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and dropping into the
upper 60s to lower 70s by daybreak on Sunday.

The coverage of showers/storms will increase during the day on
Sunday, as the low slides to the south and the convergence axis
slides further south. Forecast guidance is not very consistent on
where this axis will eventually stall, so confidence on where the
heaviest rain occurs is low. As of now, storm total rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with some locally higher amounts of
up to 3 inches. There is a signal for an axis of heavy rain to
develop over portions of southeast Mississippi and interior
southwest Alabama, though these areas have a FFG >3 inches an hour.
Ensemble probabilities are very low that we will exceed these
values, and even less for our 3 and 6 hour FFG. Therefore, the
potential for flooding would be confined to those areas where
rainfall rates are very high or in our traditionally poor drainage
areas.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the overnight
hours Sunday, though the coverage should diminish.

Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly below norms, with the
precip and cloud cover, and highs will only climb into the upper
70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. /73

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Quasi-stationary front becomes stalled near the coast into Monday.
With this feature nearby, the weather pattern remains unsettled
with scattered to numerous showers and storms to open up the work
week. The front is progged to be aligned west to east from
coastal LA to across the northern FL Peninsula by Tuesday. Along
the front, a wave of frontal low pressure is positioned over the
AL/western FL coastal waters. With the feature nearby, the
forecast calls for a chance to likely PoPs Tuesday, generally
south of Hwy 84. The better PoPs in the range are drawn closer to
the coast. Tuesday night, a slight chance to chance PoPs look to
become focused over the open Gulf waters with PoPs lowering to 10%
or less over the land zones.

With the clouds and increased rain chances, coolest daily highs
77 to 81 across and north of the Hwy 84 corridor Monday will be
well below climo by some 5 to 10 degrees. Lower half of the 80s,
southward to the coast Mon will be below normal by some 3 to 6
degrees. Overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s north of I-10 to
lower 70s coast will be a few degrees above normal on average. /10

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

The latest 14.12Z global models remain consistent on showing the
upper level geo-potential height field undergoing amplification by
mid week and persisting into the start of the weekend. Trough
axis becomes aligned from near the OH River Valley, southward to
across FL with narrow upper ridge extending from the Rio Grande
Valley, nosing northward into the Mid MS River Valley. On the
southwest flank of the upper trough, drier deep layer air
overspreads the central Gulf coast, favoring what is appearing to
be a rainfree pattern Thursday thru Saturday.

Highs trend upward and slightly above climo numbers, ranging 86
to 91. Lows in the lower/mid 60s interior to 67 to 72 closer to
the coast. /10

MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Main impacts the next few days will come from thunderstorms,
bringing brief strong wind gusts and locally higher seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  84  69  82  69  84  68  86 /  20  40  40  70  40  40  10  10
Pensacola   74  83  72  82  71  83  72  86 /  20  60  60  70  50  50  10  20
Destin      74  84  72  83  72  84  73  86 /  20  60  70  70  60  50  20  20
Evergreen   69  82  67  82  66  85  65  88 /  20  60  70  70  40  30  10  10
Waynesboro  68  82  67  79  65  82  64  86 /  20  60  40  70  20  20   0  10
Camden      68  79  66  77  64  81  63  85 /  40  60  70  60  30  20   0  10
Crestview   69  84  68  82  66  84  67  86 /  20  60  70  80  50  60  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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