543
FXUS64 KMOB 021118
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
618 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR to MVFR ceilings and visibility prevail at daybreak this
morning with an expectation for VFR flight category to prevail by
mid to late morning for the entire forecast area. A few showers
near the coast will propagate inland through late morning before
becoming isolated to scattered showers and storms for this
afternoon. Storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and may
result in temporary reductions in flight category for both
ceilings and visibility. Winds will generally prevail out of the
south to southeast today around 5kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 539 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Northwest flow aloft prevails through Monday for the forecast
area. A subtle shortwave approaches the area from the northwest
this afternoon, with a more pronounced shortwave traversing the
gulf coast states Monday into Monday evening. These features will
be responsible for any stormy weather the next 48 hours, with
favorable diurnal timing in the afternoon to early evening hours.
Expect isolated showers this morning near the coast to spread
inland by late morning. With the approach of the subtle shortwave,
expect convective coverage to increase a bit to isolated to
scattered showers and storms by early to mid afternoon. Weak shear
and moderate instability suggests storms should be your more
typical pulse-type summertime storms, with potential for brief
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Temperatures
today top out in the middle 80`s for most spots.

Tonight storms should die out after sunset with loss of daytime
heating and any lingering storms become focused offshore over the
marine waters. Overnight temperatures fall into the upper 60`s and
lower 70`s. The evolution for things Monday is a bit trickier as it
depends on how storms organize well upstream across TX/LA in
association with the more potent shortwave. Exact strength and
placement of this feature early Monday will determine if a complex
of storms misses the forecast area to the southwest or not, or just
never makes it to the forecast area at all. Given high uncertainty
in the convective evolution Monday, have kept isolated PoPs in the
forecast but can see those being bumped up in future forecast
packages if confidence increases on Monday`s convective evolution.
Regardless, another warm day is expected with highs in the upper
80`s to perhaps lower 90`s in spots. A High risk of rip currents
remains in place through tonight, becoming a moderate risk for
Monday. MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Northwesterly to occasionally westerly flow aloft persists through
next weekend as the ridge over Mexico gradually builds into the
Southern Plains and a trough digs over the eastern portion of the
CONUS. Subtle shortwaves slide across the region in this pattern
throughout the period, but timing out these individual features is
tough at this time range. Meanwhile, the surface high over the
western Atlantic maintains its grip on the region and eastern Gulf
through at least Friday. Moisture will continue to pump into the
area this upcoming week as we maintain onshore flow at the surface.
There will be a chance for showers and storms each day through at
least Thursday of this week with the highest chances coincident with
the passing shortwaves. Model guidance indicates that a front will
drift south into the area late in the work week or early next
weekend. We stuck closely to the blended guidance on Friday and
Saturday, which resulted in a relatively dry forecast, however, the
POPs could increase in future forecast updates given the presence of
the front (i.e. we aren`t entirely sold on this being a dry frontal
passage).

It`ll be toasty this week (when it isn`t rainy/cloudy) with highs
hovering right around or slightly above average. Expect highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s most days. On days that remain clear with no
showers/storms, expect highs to be a few degrees warmer. Heat
indices will hit the century mark in a few locations each day.

Beach Note: Rip current risk is LOW through Thursday with the RCMOS
probabilities indicating the LOW risk persisting through at least
early next weekend. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A light onshore flow prevails through midweek. Light to moderate
westerly to southwesterly flow returns by late week. Seas continue
to subside today into Monday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      85  71  88  71  88  72  89  73 /  50  20  20  10  20   0  10  10
Pensacola   82  74  86  74  87  74  88  75 /  50  20  20  10  10   0  10  10
Destin      83  75  85  75  87  76  87  75 /  50  20  20  10  10   0  10  10
Evergreen   84  68  88  68  89  67  90  70 /  50  20  20  10  30  10  20  20
Waynesboro  86  69  89  69  89  70  92  70 /  50  10  20  10  30  10  20  20
Camden      85  68  89  68  89  69  91  70 /  40  10  20  10  30  10  20  30
Crestview   84  68  89  67  91  67  91  70 /  50  10  20   0  20   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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