150
FXUS64 KMOB 201309
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
746 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light north to
northwest winds (5 to 10 kt) today, perhaps southerly near the
coast late this afternoon. Winds mainly light and variable
tonight. DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 509 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

An upper trof along the East Coast early today moves slowly off into
the western Atlantic through Saturday, while upper level ridging
builds into the forecast area from the west. A weak sea breeze
circulation develops near the coast this afternoon and again
Saturday afternoon, but a deep, dry north to northeasterly flow
prevails over the forecast area and deep layer moisture will be too
limited to consider PoPs, so have continued with a dry forecast
through Saturday. Afternoon temps heated up a little above what was
forecast for yesterday, and with upper level riding and associated
subsidence building into the region over the next several days we
expect more of the same. As a result, we went a couple of degrees
above NBM max temps for today, and expect most locations to warm
into the lower 90s with a few mid 90s possible over some interior
locations. With the dry air aloft, we mixed dewpoints down a little
lower than expected yesterday as well, and we expect a similar
scenario again today (with dewpoints likely falling into the mid and
upper 60s for most locations today except for along immediate coast
where min dewpoints should be in the lower 70s). We are expecting
the same trend and same numbers for high temps and min dewpoints
again on Saturday. For tonight, we expect low temperatures to range
from the mid 60s well inland to the low to mid 70s near the coast. A
low risk of rip currents is expected today through Saturday. DS/12

SHORT and LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 509 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Dry and warm conditions continue through Monday as an upper-level
ridge slowly pushes eastward across the local region and an
expansive surface high pressure remains over the Appalachians.
Subsidence from the deep-layer ridging in place, along with lower
moisture values (PWAT values around 1.2 to 1.5 inches) should keep
rain out of the forecast through, at least, Monday. Highs will
generally range from the upper 80s along the coast to the low 90s
inland. Lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s inland to the mid
70s along the coast.

By midweek, troughing should begin to dig into the central US and
move into the Great Lakes region. At the same time, a low pressure
system will attempt to form over the northwest Caribbean/southern
Gulf in association with a developing Central American Gyre (CAG).
There still remains a lot of questions with regards to the overall
upper-level pattern by this time. Some model runs suggest that the
trough will be strong enough to break down the ridge and shunt it
eastward into the western Atlantic, whereas other runs keep the
ridge in place longer. Some runs also suggest a cutoff low breaking
away from the main trough over the central US, whereas others do
not. More questions arise when looking at the potential system
developing to our south: Will a low pressure area be able to
consolidate from the large-scale CAG, or will it remain a broad,
sprawled-out area of disturbed weather? If a low is able to pinch
off from the CAG, where exactly does it form? And lastly, what
will be it`s trajectory? Will the ridge linger over our area long
enough to push it west, will it feel the pull of the cutoff upper
low to its northwest (if one does develop), or will the main
trough be strong enough to pull this area northeast?
Unfortunately, at this time, we do not know the answers to these
questions. With the pattern being so complex and fickle, run-to-
run and model-vs-model variability remains very high this far out.
We will continue to monitor trends closely and will provide
updates to the forecast once answers become more clear. We
strongly urge residents and visitors across the entire Gulf Coast
to continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 509 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A light, mostly offshore flow is expected into the early part of
the weekend, with a more east to southeasterly flow expected to
develop late in the weekend and continue into the early part of
next week. Little change in seas is expected through the weekend
and into the early part of next week. No expected hazards to small
craft through the weekend and into the early part of next week,
but winds and seas will likely be increasing by midweek and
especially into late week, possibly posing a hazard to small craft
as low pressure (possibly tropical in nature) develops over the
Gulf. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  70  93  71  91  71  91  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   92  73  88  73  90  73  89  74 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      91  74  89  75  88  75  88  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   93  67  93  68  93  69  93  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  92  67  93  69  93  69  92  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      92  67  91  69  93  70  93  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   93  67  92  68  93  68  92  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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