196
FXUS64 KMOB 130356
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1056 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions and light winds are expected through Thursday
evening. /21

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Broad upper troughing remains across the southeastern
U.S. through Thursday. Upper ridging continues to build into the
south-central U.S. during this time allowing for generally northerly
flow to prevail aloft. Dry weather conditions should persist through
Thursday for most locations, with perhaps an isolated shower or
storm east of the I-65 corridor on Thursday afternoon. This would be
in association with a small corridor of surface convergence along a
narrow tongue of much higher theta-e expected to advect across
southeastern Alabama. Otherwise, it remains hot with highs in the
middle 90`s and overnight lows in the middle to upper 60`s inland
and lower to middle 70`s nearer the coast. A Moderate risk of rip
currents remains in place through Thursday, continuing through the
rest of the short term period. MM/25

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

An upper level ridge will build eastward from the southern plains
across the southeast. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will reside
just northwest of the area. This will create a deep layer north to
northwest flow. This very subsident pattern will cause mostly dry
and very warm conditions Friday and Saturday as highs warm into
the mid and upper 90s in most area north of the immediate coast.
The chances of a cooling shower or storm will remain very low. Heat
index values will be in the upper 90s to around 100 on Friday and
100 to 105 on Saturday as moisture begins to increase across the
area. /13

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The upper level ridge shifts to the northeast and easterly flow
increases as sfc high pressure moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
The increasing moisture combined with increasing rain chances will
lead to slightly lower high temps on Sunday with generally
mid/upper 90s expected. Easterly flow increases by Monday as the
pressure gradient increases between high pressure over the
Atlantic and the potential of a developing tropical disturbance
over the Bay of Campeche. Precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches Monday through Wednesday, leading to daily shower
and thunderstorm chances starting along the seabreeze and moving
inland through the afternoon hours. Temperatures also drop back
into the upper 80s and lower 90s for highs. The risk for rip
currents will increase with a high rip current risk expected by
Sunday. /13

MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through
Friday. Offshore flow will prevail at night into the morning hours
and mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A
light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Saturday.
MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  95  72  96  74  96  75  91 /   0  10   0  10   0  10  10  50
Pensacola   74  93  75  93  76  94  77  89 /  10  20  10  20  10  20  20  60
Destin      77  91  77  92  78  92  79  89 /  10  40  10  20  10  20  20  60
Evergreen   67  95  70  96  71  99  72  95 /   0  10   0  10   0  10  10  40
Waynesboro  63  94  68  97  71  99  72  94 /   0   0   0  10   0  10   0  40
Camden      64  94  69  96  71  99  73  96 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0  30
Crestview   69  96  69  97  71  98  72  93 /  10  40   0  20   0  10  10  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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