378
FXUS64 KMOB 091740
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Upper-level ridging, currently located over the
Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast, will gradually shift
southeastward throughout the period as an upper-level longwave
trough over the Great Lakes digs southward. An embedded shortwave
trough will quickly rotate around this longwave on Monday, with
its axis passing over the local area during the late
afternoon/evening hours. This shortwave will help to push a weak
frontal boundary into the region on Monday which will likely reach
the coast or move just offshore by the evening hours.

For today, with the ridge remaining firmly in place, expect hot and
dry conditions to continue through the afternoon hours. Highs will
top out in the low 90s along the coast to the mid to upper 90s for
inland areas. With dew points ranging from the mid 60s to the lower
70s, heat indices will rise into the 98-105 degree range areawide
(remaining a few degrees below Heat Advisory criteria). By the
evening, as the ridge begins to retreat to the southeast, a few
isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out over our far
interior counties as storms initially develop over northern and
central MS/AL and spread southward via outflow boundary collisions.
With the loss of daytime heating, any lingering convection that does
make it into our CWA will likely be short-lived and rather weak.
Lows tonight will be in the low 70s, with mid to upper 70s along the
coast.

On Monday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin sliding
into the region during the morning hours. Not expecting any rainfall
as it enters the region due to the lack of forcing and residual
subsident effects still in place from the retreating ridge.
Favorable differential divergence arrives by the afternoon as the
upper shortwave approaches and passes overhead, and the surface
boundary begins interacting with the northward propagating seabreeze
boundary. This, along with ample moisture and a highly unstable
environment (SBCAPE values over 3500 J/kg in spots), will allow for
scattered thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. With deep-
layer shear remaining rather weak (generally around or less than 20
knots), expecting pulse-type storms to initially develop along the
frontal boundary and/or sea breeze boundary and spread across the
area via outflow boundary collisions. Strong instability, steep low-
level lapse rates, and a dry layer aloft (giving way to DCAPEs well
over 1200 J/kg) could lead to a few strong to severe storms, capable
of producing gusty to damaging downburst winds. Due to this
potential, much of the local area has been outlooked in a marginal
risk of severe storms for Monday. Otherwise, highs will reach the
low to mid 90s, with heat indices once again approaching the 105
degree mark in some areas. A Low Risk of rip currents continues
through the near term period. /96



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  92  69  91  68  91  70  91 /   0  50  20  10  10  20  20  50
Pensacola   76  91  72  90  71  90  73  89 /  10  50  40  20  10  30  20  60
Destin      78  89  73  89  74  90  76  88 /  10  40  40  20  10  30  20  60
Evergreen   72  93  65  89  63  93  68  92 /  10  40  20  10   0  10  10  50
Waynesboro  72  91  65  88  64  91  67  92 /  20  30  10  10   0  10  10  40
Camden      72  89  65  87  64  90  68  91 /  20  20  10  10   0  10  10  40
Crestview   71  95  67  91  64  93  69  92 /   0  50  20  10  10  20  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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