Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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219 FXUS64 KMOB 121126 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 626 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A few showers or storms may develop over portions of the coastal counties this afternoon, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Northerly winds around 5 knots today become southerly to southwesterly near the coast in the afternoon. A light northerly flow follows for tonight. /29 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 443 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Thursday) Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A broad shortwave trof becomes oriented over the north central Gulf coast states today then becomes positioned across the northern Gulf to off the coast of the Carolinas on Thursday. A light northwesterly surface flow prevails over the area today with the exception of a weak sea breeze developing near the coast this afternoon. While deep layer moisture looks too limited to support pops for most of the area today, cannot rule out a few shower/storms with the sea breeze this afternoon and have opted to keep small pops in for portions of the coastal counties. A similar pattern follows for Thursday with an afternoon sea breeze developing near the coast, but the sea breeze looks to be aided by a weak frontal boundary lifting into the coastal counties which was previously stalled over the northern Gulf. In addition, improved deep layer moisture works into eastern portions of the area in the afternoon, and have opted for slight chance to chance pops for generally along and east of I-65. Highs today range from the upper 80s well inland to the lower 90s for much of the remainder of the area, then highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight mostly range from the mid/upper 60s inland to the lower/mid 70s at the coast. Have gone with a low risk for Alabama beaches through tonight with a moderate risk for the western Florida panhandle beaches. For Thursday, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected for both Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches. /29 SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 An upper level trough stretching from the western Gulf of Mexico to Bermuda shifts southeast through the Short Term. The southwestern end begins to break off over the southern Gulf Friday night, with a surface low beginning to organize over the Bay of Campeche. With a surface ridge stretching southwest over the Caribbean and Southeastern Gulf, the pressure gradient tightens, and southeasterly flow over the central Gulf beginning to increase. Gulf moisture begins to move north over the Gulf towards the northeast and northcentral Gulf coast, but by Saturday morning, guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values below 1.5" and a drier airmass over the Southeast. Have kept the coming rains south of the forecast for now. Upper level high pressure builds east over the Southeast as the upper trough shifts southeast, and with that, temperatures rise to well above seasonal norms, topping out in the mid to upper 90s for Friday. Enough moisture has returned to the forecast area for Heat Indices to rise into the 100-106 degree range on Friday. The increasing subsidence will also increase low temperatures from the mid 60s to low 70s Thursday night to the low 70s well inland to mid/upper 70s along the coast Friday night. A moderate risk of rip currents will rise to High by Sunday, as increasing swell reaches area beaches with the increasing winds over the Gulf. /16 LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 The Extended continues to be a challenge, with the interaction between eastward moving upper level high pressure over the Southeast and a developing upper low over the southwestern Gulf. Guidance is consistent in developing a surface low over the Bay of Campeche early in the coming week near the developing upper low, then moving it towards southern Texas. The surface ridge that has moved over the eastern Gulf moves off, but another surface ridge settles off the East Coast, bringing increasing low level flow over the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico. Guidance varies on the direction of the developing low level flow, ranging from easterly to south-southeasterly, and from there, where the best Gulf moisture flows inland. The ECMWF continues to aim the inland moisture influx towards Texas, whilst the GFS and GDPS continue to advertise eastern Louisiana/Mississippi. The GEFS and CMCE ensembles are in good agreement with their respective model physicals, whilst the EPS ensembles shift towards the GFS/GDPS and their respective ensembles. With that said, the better moisture influx shifts a bit further east from yesterday, to over eastern Louisiana/Mississippi. This axis brings southwestern portions of the forecast area under an increased risk of water issues. Will have to continue to monitor for flooding issues Sunday through Tuesday. Another day of well above seasonal temperatures is expected Saturday, topping out in the mid to upper 90s with Heat Indices topping out in the 101 to 106 degree range. From there, increasing cloudiness and rain will tighten the temperature range, dropping high temperatures to below seasonal norms whilst keeping low temperatures above. /16 MARINE... Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through Friday, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours and a mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Saturday and strengthens on Sunday. Small craft should exercise caution beginning on Sunday for the open Gulf waters. Higher winds and seas are possible near storms. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 69 94 72 96 73 96 75 / 10 10 20 10 10 0 10 10 Pensacola 94 74 93 75 94 76 94 78 / 10 10 30 10 10 10 20 20 Destin 91 77 91 76 92 78 92 79 / 20 10 40 10 10 10 20 20 Evergreen 94 67 95 70 97 71 99 73 / 10 10 20 0 10 0 10 0 Waynesboro 90 63 94 68 97 70 99 73 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 Camden 91 65 93 69 96 71 99 73 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 0 0 Crestview 96 69 96 70 97 71 98 73 / 20 10 40 10 10 0 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob