768
FXUS64 KMOB 112342
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR will prevail through the forecast period. A light northerly to
northeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday morning. Winds
may turn light southerly to southwesterly near the immediate coast
by Wednesday afternoon. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Upper troughing generally persists across the eastern CONUS
through Wednesday. A stalled front over the gulf keeps us on the
drier side of things with hot temperatures and generally lowered
relative humidity as dewpoints are held in the middle 60`s. Given
the drier air in place, expect most of the area to not see any
showers or storms through Wednesday. Some notable vorticity
advection over the area aloft with an embedded shortwave in the
larger trough may be able to supply just enough lift to spark a
shower or storm nearer the coast when the seabreeze pushes inland
Wednesday. Outside of that, things remain dry. Expect high
temperatures in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s this afternoon with
lower to middle 90`s Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the
lower 60`s over the interior and middle to upper 60`s nearer the
coast. Area beaches likely won`t make it below 70. A low risk of
rip currents remains in place through Wednesday. MM/25

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The upper pattern becomes increasingly complex as we head into
the late week period with generally weak upper troughing
prevailing Wednesday night into Thursday before upper ridging
shifts eastward in response to the ejecting cutoff upper low over
the southwestern U.S. Thursday into Friday. In terms of sensible
weather I`d anticipate things to get hot and dry with the upper
ridging building in and prevailing surface winds out of the
northeast. This is reflected in the current forecast advertising
the hottest temperatures of the season so far featuring highs in
the middle 90`s Thursday and upper 90`s to near 100 for Friday.
Thankfully, despite the hot air temperatures lowered dewpoints in
the afternoon hours should help keep heat indices in the 98 to 103
range for most spots each afternoon. Overnight lows Wednesday
night fall into the middle to upper 60`s inland with lower to
middle 70`s nearer the coast. Upper 60`s to lower 70`s
temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday nights for most
locations with middle 70`s nearer the coast. MM/25

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A complex pattern takes shape as we roll into the weekend and early
next week. The forecast has the potential to be soggy, but just how
soggy remains the question at hand. There remains a large amount of
uncertainty in the forecast during this timeframe (moreso than
normal).

A ridge over the Southern Plains gets nudged eastward into the
Southeast this weekend. Meanwhile the broad trough feature draped
across the southern Gulf continues to lift across the western
Atlantic while leaving a general weakness across the Gulf. This
weakness (or inverted trough) aloft begins to retrograde westward
around the southern periphery of the ridge on Saturday. How far west
this feature retrogrades around the ridge and how far south the
ridge digs across parts of the Southeast and FL peninsula remain the
big questions as we roll into Sunday and Monday. Those question
marks will play a big role in the forecast for the local area.
Looking down at the surface, the front that passed overhead recently
will continue to drift across the Gulf this weekend with weak
surface ridging overhead. Weak onshore flow sets up at the surface
by Saturday afternoon as the winds aloft also slowly turn easterly
then southeasterly. Moisture begins to steadily stream into the
region in this pattern. That said, Saturday looks to be a transition
day where we have isolated to scattered storms along the sea breeze
near the coast. Onshore flow begins to ramp up on Sunday and Monday
with a slug of moisture likely pivoting around the southwestern
periphery of the ridge (also associated with a a feature lifting out
of the Central American Gyre). There remains a great deal of
uncertainty in the placement of the moisture, but Sunday and Monday
have the potential to be wet at times. Storms on Sunday and Monday
have the potential to be efficient rainmakers, thus flash flooding
remains a concern during that timeframe.

In addition to the rain, the heat escalates early this weekend,
especially prior to the rain. Highs on Saturday will top out in the
upper 90s with some inland spots hitting 100 that afternoon. Heat
indices will feel downright disrespectful on Saturday - climbing to
100-106 area-wide.

Beach Note: The risk of rip currents quickly increases to a HIGH
Friday into the weekend. The risk may fluctuate a little bit until
the guidance gets a better handle on the surface features in the
Gulf late this week and into the weekend. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

No impacts outside of higher winds and seas near storms are expected
through Saturday. A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow
prevails through Friday. Offshore flow will prevail at night into
the morning hours and mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and
early evening hours. A light to moderate southeasterly flow is
established by Saturday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  93  70  95  73  97  73  96 /   0  20   0  10   0  10   0  10
Pensacola   73  93  74  94  77  95  76  93 /  10  20  10  30  10  10  10  20
Destin      75  92  76  92  78  94  78  92 /  10  20  20  40  10  20  10  20
Evergreen   64  93  66  95  71  98  70 100 /   0  10   0  10   0  10   0  10
Waynesboro  63  90  64  95  69  98  70 100 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0  10
Camden      63  90  65  94  70  97  70  99 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0   0
Crestview   66  95  68  96  72  98  70  99 /   0  20   0  30   0  10   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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