630
FXUS65 KMSO 240854
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
254 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...June climatologically is the wettest month for most
in the Northern Rockies, eyeballing a few stations around our
region look about 50 to 75% of normal precipitation, with a week
left in the month. So what do the models depict about the last
week of June? Well there are a few things we can say with
confidence and a few with little or no confidence.

Starting with the near term, there is high confidence that through
Wednesday the region will be very warm and dry, for this time of
year. Temperatures by Wednesday will be around 90F in western
Montana and near 100F in north-central Idaho. Also, each afternoon
except Tuesday will be breezy, so with warm, dry, and breezy
conditions please exercise caution with campfires and barbecues.

Wednesday afternoon is still on track for ridge breakdown and the
model consensus demonstrates a cooldown with high temperatures at
or below seasonable norms. This would be the last part of the
forecast where there is confidence.

The cooldown will be facilitated by a change to zonal or
progressive flow with a couple Pacific systems transiting north of the
region. Both the Global Forecast System and European Community
Ensemble System displace the subtropical high, better known during
the summer as the 4 corners high, well to the east through the
1st week of July. This doesn`t mean that at times a warm
southwesterly flow won`t develop, but should delay the typical
western US heat dome from spreading north. There are still many
questions on how this will translate into precipitation, stay
tuned to future forecasts.



&&

.AVIATION...Zonal flow remains over the Northern Rockies airspace
today with breezy conditions at all terminals. Gusts of 18 to 25
kts will be common during the afternoon. A trough approaching the
west coast Tuesday will allow a transient ridge to develop and
winds slacken. VFR conditions are expected both days with a few
high clouds.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$