062
FXUS66 KMTR 300542
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1042 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 102 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

The warming trend continues, with its peak expected Thursday.
Slight cool down over the weekend with another warming possible
warming trend next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

Climate sites near the coast were within a few degrees of their
seasonal averages today while interior areas were as much as 11
degrees (KSTS) above normal. This is as sunny sky conditions where
observed region-wide this afternoon which allowed for daytime
heating. Low clouds are not likely to develop tonight, but if any do
develop they would be along coastal areas of the Central Coast.
Overnight temperatures are forecast to drop into the low-to-mid 50`s
but can`t rule out a few spots (cooler wind sheltered areas)
dipping into the upper 40`s. Meanwhile, higher elevations are
expected to lower into the upper 50`s to near 60 degrees. The
ongoing forecast remains on track with no updates needed at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

Temperatures continue to warm with this afternoon offering highs
peaking in the 80s in the more interior areas, while the coast
continues to stay in the 50s and lower 60s. Cloud cover eroded in
the mid morning, but some coastal clouds begin to return in the
evening and overnight.

Temperatures cool at a fair pace overnight, with widespread lows
in the 50s. Meaning those warmer interior areas get a good break
between these warm days.

Thursday offers the warmest temperatures of the week with the
interior areas breaking into the 90s, but still only into the 60s
along the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

Again, overnight temperatures allow for a nice break from the heat
Thursday night. Friday starts a modest cooling trend, with
interior locations still breaking into the 80s and low 90s, but
these high temperatures will continue to ease over the weekend.

Longer term models and ensembles hint at another warming trend
over the next work week. The peak of the warming still has some
arguments in overall model output. The model trends keep pushing
the warmest temperatures later into the next work week as the
upper level pattern change continues to be delayed. This will
continue to be something the forecast team keeps a close eye on.

Be sure to keep checking in!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Skies are clear and expected to remain
so through the end of the TAF. Winds light overnight tonight then
increasing in the afternoon tomorrow to become onshore and breezy.
Winds ease into the nighttime of Thursday to become light once more.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Winds are currently still breezy but will
become more gentle into the early morning of Thursday. Breezy to
moderate winds return in the afternoon with gusts up to around 25
knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR for the majority of the TAF period,
though briefly in the early morning of Thursday, low clouds may
bring IFR conditions to KMRY per model suggestion. However,
confidence on this is low. Will keep a close eye on this through the
night. Onshore and breezy winds return in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 852 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

A strong pressure gradient over the coastal waters will result in
gale force gusts across the outer waters and inner northern
waters. These stronger winds will begin to diminish overnight and
into Thursday morning. Significant wave heights offshore build to
12 to 14 feet tonight with an abating trend set for Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...RGass

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