Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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674 FXUS66 KMTR 250050 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 550 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1231 AM PDT Fri May 24 2024 Cool temperatures this weekend with a slight warm up slated for next week. Quiet, summer-like pattern persists through the period. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 205 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024 (This evening through Saturday) As we head into the un-official kick off to summer this weekend it doesn`t really feel like summer. The latest 24 hour trends indicate many locations running 5 to 10 degrees colder today than Thursday. Why the big change? The longwave pattern changed thanks to a passing upper level trough and a weak surface front. This trough and colder air aloft help to increase onshore flow too. SFO-SAC gradient is pushing 3.3mb this afternoon, which is also stronger than yesterday. The increased onshore flow has also kept the marine stratus lingering well into the afternoon. Pretty impressive when one looks at the visible satellite and still sees clouds spreading across the SF Peninsula and into the East Bay Hills. Needless to say, temperatures were nudged downward today around SF Bay due to lingering clouds. One final note with today`s onshore flow, peak gusts of 45-50 mph have been observed in the East Bay Hills. Tonight through Saturday: Onshore flow will ease overnight, but still remain onshore. Given persistent onshore flow will expect another night of widespread stratus moving inland. Have added patchy fog and drizzle to the coast/favored upslope areas. After a cloudy start to the day on Saturday some clearing will be had, but stratus will lingering around Monterey Bay and SF Peninsula. Another cool day with max temps in the upper 50s/60s coast and 60s/70s inland. Forecast onshore gradients will be close 3mb again so gusty winds in the afternoon seem plausible. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 217 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024 (Saturday night through next Thursday) Slight shift in the upper level pattern for the rest of the weekend through Memorial Day will lead to a gradual warm up through next week. 500 mb heights will increase with warming 850 mb temps all yielding warmer temperatures. Closer to seasonal averages by the end of next week as far interior locations approach 90 degrees. Night and morning clouds clearing back to the coast each afternoon will also continue. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 550 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024 Most of the region has cleared out, but MVFR stratus continues over the SF Bay terminals and the area around MRY. Not expecting any clearing for those terminals for the rest of the day; if they do clear out, it will be short-lived and transitory. Breezy northwesterly winds will continue into the evening, diminishing at night before resuming Saturday afternoon. High confidence in further stratus development across the region this evening, except at the North Bay terminals where confidence is moderate. Along the coast, and in the SF Bay and Monterey Bay regions, ceilings are expected to decrease to IFR-LIFR. Stratus mixes out late Saturday morning with breezy northwest flow resuming in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR stratus continues through the day. Strong west winds gusting to 30 gusts will continue through the evening. At this time, low confidence that winds will gust above 35 knots. Will monitor evolution of winds throughout the day and will amend TAF if necessary. High confidence of MVFR or marginal IFR stratus at the terminal area tonight, clearing late Saturday morning with strong west winds Saturday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... MRY should expect MVFR ceilings through the day, with some greater uncertainty at SNS although continuing ceilings are also favored there. Breezy and gusty northwest winds continue through the evening. Overnight, ceilings drop to the IFR- LIFR level across the region. Clearing time is expected late Saturday morning at SNS, and a moderate confidence that MRY clears out at a similar time as well, although some model output keeps ceilings through Saturday. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 550 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024 Strong winds hazardous to small craft continue through the day with gale force gusts possible along the coast near Point Reyes north to Point Arena. Winds will gradually diminish overnight but gusty winds and steep wind waves will continue, especially in the northern outer waters. A strengthening high pressure system in the eastern North Pacific will contribute to increased winds and wave heights starting in the middle part of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM....MM AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea