311
FXUS64 KOHX 220529
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1229 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, wind speed/direction, and
sky condition grids blending them with previously associated
hourly gridded forecasted values. Current regional temperature
trends continue to be in line with forecasted lows. Remainder of
forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

If I were a betting man, my money would be on many people
stepping outside today and immediately saying, "It sure feels
like summer out here." They wouldn`t be wrong: dew points in the
mid to upper 60s and almost every site in Middle TN in the low 80s
at 10 am? Yeah. That`s summer. However, it`s May 21st. That means
it`s still spring and that means severe weather. Not today, but I
gotta tell you, models have starting singing a song of a very
active holiday weekend ahead. Yesterday didn`t look like much, but
it looks a lot different today.

In the short term, today will remain quiet. High pressure is
dominating the area and while some heat-of-the-afternoon cumulus
clouds will eventually develop, we should remain rain-free.
Afternoon highs will climb into the low 90s in many spots, but we
should come up short of the record 94 degrees from 1941.

We`re still looking at tomorrow being the start of our active
stretch of weather. This begins with a round of showers and
thunderstorms crossing the TN River just before sunrise tomorrow.
This first wave should be of the general variety and almost every
model shows these petering out pretty quickly -- likely only a
light shower by the time they reach the I-65 corridor. This will
start a lull in activity before the front associated this system
starts to approach mid-afternoon tomorrow. Instability is
respectable with about 30 kts of shear, so I wouldn`t write this
first round of storms off. A few strong wind gusts will be
possible (40-60 mph) with brief heavy rains through the early
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Each of the next several days will present thunderstorm chances, as
we talked about yesterday. What`s different is, now a few of the
days are standing out as having severe threats. At this time, if I
had to pick 3 of them, Friday, Sunday and Monday look like they`ll
have the best chance. Each show an all-severe mode threat: damaging
wind gusts, large hail and even a tornado threat, plus heavy rain.
Sharp mid-level lapse rates (8+ deg/km), 3000-4000 J/Kg CAPE, deep
layer and low-level shear, and several other parameters that are
fairly impressive, like supercell composites in the upper teens by
Sunday. However I wouldn`t sleep on Thursday or Saturday, either. In
addition, I still think the cumulative rainfall through the weekend
presents a flooding threat at some point due to PWs running 1.5-1.6
inches throughout the weekend. So, here`s the point: please remain
weather aware from tomorrow through Monday. Check back here, check
our website and our socials regularly for the latest. I have a
feeling the ol` weather bureau is gonna have a busy holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours at all
terminals. CKV could be impacted by a brief shower this morning.
Scattered storms will likely develop Wednesday afternoon/evening
and could impact CKV/BNA/MQY. Confidence is lower at SRB/CSV.
PROB30 groups were added to the most likely time frame for storms.
Winds will be out of the S/SSW around 5 kts overnight and
increasing closer to 10 kts by late morning with a few gusts up
to 20 kts during the afternoon. Winds will decrease below 5 kts
again after 23/00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  69  82  68 /  50  70  70  50
Clarksville    83  67  80  66 /  70  80  80  60
Crossville     80  62  76  62 /  20  50  50  50
Columbia       86  67  81  66 /  40  60  60  50
Cookeville     81  65  77  64 /  30  60  60  50
Jamestown      81  63  76  62 /  30  60  50  50
Lawrenceburg   85  67  81  66 /  30  50  50  50
Murfreesboro   86  66  82  66 /  40  60  60  50
Waverly        84  65  81  66 /  70  80  80  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan