145
FXUS64 KOHX 240533
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1233 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

After the scattered strong storms that impacted the Plateau and
vicinity moved east, we had a little resurgence of storms across
our eastern counties. Short range models show this activity
diminishing late this evening, except for maybe a few stray
showers. We still expect mostly quiet wx overnight with areas of
fog, especially in locations that received heavy rainfall.
The forecast has been updated for hourly trends and seems to be
in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

We are catching a break from the convection at this time. The first
round of showers and tstms just moved off of our northern Plateau.
Mow we are awaiting some development upstream. Also, we are warming
into the lower 80s now and our convective temperatures will be on
approach. Still expecting shower and thunderstorm development a
little later. Capes are quite impressive again today with models
showing up to 3000 j/kg. Thus, strong to severe tstms will again be
possible this afternoon. 850 mb speeds are rather low at 20 kts so
storm structure will need to be sufficient. Otherwise, isolated 2
inch rainfall amounts could pose some flood problems depending on
whether or not previously soaked areas are impacted. Those areas
appear to be our northwest and also areas just west of the northern
Plateau.

Moving on, tonight, a shortwave will arrive late and allow some
convection to redevelop, especially across our south. Following this,
Friday looks somewhat similar to today. A weakening boundary will be
located just to our west by afternoon. But the models are picking up
on some mid and upper level late day ridging. This also transcends to
larger subsidence by late in the day. So, it looks as though we will
see morning convection on into the early to mid afternoon, before
tapering off. Severity of storms will be primarily cape dependent.
So the marginal risk looks reasonable for hail and high winds.

Saturday looks as though we will catch a bit of a break. There will
still be isolated to scattered activity around. The marginal risk
will remain as higher capes are expected in the afternoon.

For the near term temps, warm and muggy. Highs 80s, lows 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

In the extended forecast, a fairly strong frontal boundary with
upper support will move through late Sunday night. With the more
than sufficient instability during the day on Sunday, severe weather
becomes more likely. Furthermore, organization looks likely and
speeds at 850 mb will be in excess of 40 kts. I will say that the
better chance of severe may hold off until evening though when the
pre frontal organization picks up. Damaging winds, large hail and a
few tornadoes will all be possible. Average qpf amounts are just
over a half inch but of course, isolated totals could be in that
1-2 inch range.

Showers and thunderstorms will finally move out of the picture by
late Monday. The following weather pattern looks nicer with a cooler
surface high building southward through the week. The upper levels
keep the deeper troughing to our northeast but the shallow push of
cooler air will still cool our temps down to seasonal levels through
the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions in place currently, but low stratus clouds will
move in and patchy dense fog is possible, especially at CSV and
SRB. BNA could see some lowered vis, but looks like it will stay
within VFR thresholds. For later this afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms are possible, but models do not have a great handle
on placement. Went ahead and introduced a PROB30 group for BNA/MQY
for this afternoon. Will attempt to further fine-tune the times
within those groups next cycle once more guidance comes in.

For winds, generally light and variable through the overnight
hours and will remain out of the south during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  68  87  69 /  70  50  40  20
Clarksville    82  67  84  68 /  70  40  40  20
Crossville     78  60  81  63 /  70  50  40  20
Columbia       81  65  86  67 /  80  50  40  20
Cookeville     79  63  82  65 /  70  50  40  20
Jamestown      79  61  82  63 /  70  50  40  20
Lawrenceburg   80  65  86  68 /  80  50  40  20
Murfreesboro   81  65  86  66 /  70  50  40  20
Waverly        81  65  85  68 /  80  40  40  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Baggett