077
FXUS64 KOHX 231140
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A cluster of thunderstorms over our northeast counties continues to
push northeast out of the area. These storms aren`t very tall,
but are producing a decent amount of lightning. Latest high res
guidance concerning the storms later this morning show storms
firing as early as 10-11 AM. The HRRR and high- res NAM do vary in
time (NAM earlier, HRRR later), but both now agree in storms
congealing and pushing east through Middle Tennessee this
afternoon. Primary threats remain to be damaging winds and heavy
downpours that could lead to localized flash flooding. Profiles
are very saturdated today and lapse rates remain on the lower
side, so severe hail chances are quite low.

Flash flooding is a real concern today as the ground is already very
saturated and repeated rounds of heavy rain are expected. A slow
moving boundary will allow for storms to continue firing along it
and with the environment being so full of moisture, it won`t take
much to cause flooding. Model QPF show a few spots primarily over
our west/southwest counties receiving 3 inches in 3 hours this
afternoon. Storm motion upshear vectors are also quite slow over
this area, indicating there could be some training of storms. It
will be something we closely monitor throughout the day along with
the severe storm threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

What a day. Actually, what a month. We`re enjoying a brief
respite from Mother Nature`s ferocity tonight with only a lone
thunderstorm across our northwest. A few light showers could
sneak across our southern counties through the remainder of this
morning, but otherwise, we`re just playing the waiting game for
the next round of storms this afternoon.

Pretty much all of the same ingredients are in place for this
afternoon that were there yesterday: ample instability with
values approaching 3000 J/kg, deep layer shear will again be
between 25-30 kts, mid-level lapse rates will be around 6.5 C/km,
and SRH values are generally below 100 m2/s2. PWAT values will
also again be more than sufficient enough for storms to drop very
heavy rain. The difference today is, though, that storms will be
mostly driven by daytime heating and will perhaps not be quite as
organized. Models are a bit all over the place in the evolution of
convection. Some show storms congealing into an MCS and pushing
through like yesterday`s, while others show more scattered,
popcorn style thunderstorms. Regardless of how it evolves, just
know the same threats exist: damaging winds, very heavy rain that
could lead to flash flooding, and maybe even some hail. Models
bring the most action to Middle Tennessee between 12pm-6pm.

Once those storms clear the area tonight, a few widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight into Friday
morning. Severe storms are not expected during that time. It will
be more of a few rumbles of thunder type deal.

As we move into Friday, we will prepare yet again for another line
of storms to push through the area that afternoon. The setup looks
more organized as a line of storms will push in from the west-
northwest. Our environment will still be very unstable and lapse
rates look more impressive, which would increase our severe hail
potential. Models also show SRH values are a little higher, too,
which would increase the chance for tornadoes.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

For the long term, Sunday and Monday are the days that continue to
stand out for an all-hazard severe weather setup. We`re still
just a little too far out to nail down timing for these days, but
the signal remains on the models that severe weather is likely on
both of those days. I will once again mention flooding. All of
these repeated rounds of not only rain, but very heavy rain, on
saturated soils spells flooding potential. This will be something
to also keep in mind when thinking about your severe weather
plans.

Come Tuesday, our upper-air flow will finally transition to a more
northerly flow and this will help pull in drier and cooler air as a
ridging pattern sets up across the central US. This will bring us
a MUCH WELCOMED break from all of this wild weather. Temperatures
after Monday`s system move through will be in the upper 70s for
most.

Stay tuned for updates and remain weather aware!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Scattered showers and storms will likely impact the terminals
this afternoon reducing visibilities to MVFR/IFR at times.
Showers and storms should dissipate and move east this evening.
Some models are showing the possibility of fog development
particularly at SRB/CSV after 24/06z. Winds will increase out of
the SSW to 5-10 kts late this morning through the afternoon. Winds
will decrease below 5 kts after 24/00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  67  82  67 /  80  40  70  60
Clarksville    81  65  80  67 /  80  40  70  50
Crossville     77  60  76  60 /  90  50  80  60
Columbia       82  65  82  65 /  80  50  80  60
Cookeville     78  62  78  63 /  80  50  70  60
Jamestown      78  61  77  62 /  90  60  70  60
Lawrenceburg   81  66  80  66 /  70  50  70  50
Murfreesboro   83  64  82  65 /  80  40  80  60
Waverly        82  65  82  66 /  80  50  90  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Reagan