112
FXUS64 KOHX 230517
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1217 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

All watches and warnings have been canceled for Middle Tennessee
for the remainder of the evening. So we get to relax for a few
hours before we get to do it all over again tomorrow. The mid
state is under a marginal risk of severe storms on Thursday,
mainly during the afternoon, as that`s when the HRRR brings the
bulk of the expected convection across the area. Forecast sounding
shows plenty of instability tomorrow afternoon, with steep mid-
level lapse rates, a mid-level dry later, weak shear, and plenty
of precipitable water. So the threats tomorrow will be more or
less the same as they were today. In the near-term, we may see
some redevelopment of showers and a storm or two overnight and
early tomorrow as a weak shortwave comes through our area, but
these probably won`t be anywhere close to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A few showers and storms were moving across far northern portions
of Middle TN. More storms were firing up back across West TN and
AR. Look for all this activity to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon out ahead of a cold front and surface
trough. Our most significant coverage and severe risk will come in
the 3 PM to 11 PM time frame as the storms from out west move our
way while coming together to form a possible MCS. Whether
individual cells or an MCS, the main concern this afternoon and
evening will be damaging winds. Some hail is possible. Very heavy
downpours should be expected, but the storms will be moving fast
enough to keep any flooding brief. Capes in our west are already
running over 2000 J/kg and short range models show values peaking
near 4000. Deep layer shear will approach 45kt, so the storms will
have a lot of energy. Thankfully low level shear is not favorable
for tornadoes, but the risk is not zero.

Thunderstorms will move east and gradually weaken late in the
evening. Some additional storms are possible overnight into
Thursday morning, but these are not expected to produce widespread
severe wx.

During the daytime Thursday, additional scattered storms will
form. Conditions will become unstable again, so severe wx is a
possibility. The setup does not look as organized for Thursday,
but still, a few storms may contain gusty winds and large hail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

We continue to be concerned about stormy wx all the way through Memorial
Day. We will be in an unsettled pattern with west southwest flow
aloft bringing a series of waves across the region. The air will
continue to be unstable and moisture-rich with a deep tropical
connection. The holiday weekend will not be a total washout. There
will be periods of time and perhaps some entire days when the
balmy early summer wx beckons us outdoors. But, we must stay wx
aware, because the periods of thunderstorms could bring bouts of
severe wx and localized flooding with generally increasing hazard
potential through the weekend. Sunday and Memorial Day look the
worst at this point with all modes of severe wx in play including
damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

Overall, there are a lot of moving parts in this forecast, so the
storm outlooks and forecast details are likely to need adjustment
each day. Have fun but stay aware! A drier, cooler, and much less
humid pattern is ahead just after Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

More showers and storms will likely impact the terminals during
the forecast period. A scattered shower could impact CKV over the
next 2 hours but otherwise, the overnight and morning hours should
be dry. CSV will be impacted by MVFR fog through dawn and
potentially SRB as well but the remaining terminals will be VFR.
Storms are expected to develop to the west early in the afternoon
and move eastward impacting the terminals through the afternoon
hours. Visibilities will be reduced to MVFR/IFR at times. Activity
will move east and dissipate during the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  67  84  68 /  80  60  50  60
Clarksville    81  66  82  67 /  80  50  50  60
Crossville     77  60  78  61 /  80  50  50  60
Columbia       82  64  82  66 /  80  60  60  60
Cookeville     78  62  79  64 /  80  50  50  60
Jamestown      78  61  79  62 /  90  50  50  60
Lawrenceburg   81  65  81  66 /  80  60  60  60
Murfreesboro   83  64  83  65 /  70  50  50  60
Waverly        82  65  82  66 /  80  60  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Rose
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan