Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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174 FXUS64 KOUN 061858 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Currently a front sets draped across Pampa, TX to Buffalo, OK through southern Kansas to Ponca City, OK. This boundary will continue to sag south, nudging into northern Oklahoma by 21Z. Moisture will pool ahead of the front, which combined with daytime heating will result in a narrow corridor of higher theta-e and instability along the 100th meridian (as the front surges south faster in the panhandles) and fanning out in northwest Oklahoma (first signs of cumulus can be seen near and northeast of Amarillo, TX). Around peak heating, expect to see isolated to widely scattered storms develop along this front with the highest chances in western Oklahoma and westward. With inverted-v soundings, ample instability (though narrow in extent), and effective bulk shear increasing to around 40 knots, the primary hazard will be severe outflow winds (up to 60-70 mph) with a secondary risk for large hail (up to golfball size). Additional showers and storms will be possible over northwest Oklahoma overnight into the early morning as a shortwave passes over, aided by a low level jet over the panhandles. This convection would be elevated and is not expected to be severe. Friday will be warm with gusty winds by afternoon. Day && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 MCS season continues with nocturnal storm chances continuing through the weekend. On Friday afternoon, storms are expected to develop across New Mexico, Colorado, and Nebraska then travel southeast. These storms will merge into a complex that will have a low chance at affecting northern and northwestern Oklahoma Friday night before dissipating. Temperatures will peak Saturday afternoon before the arrival of a cold front. Another wave will move through Saturday, allowing another MCS to have a run at our forecast area with slightly better chances of making it into northern Oklahoma (30-40%). Cooler temperatures will start to fill in across northern Oklahoma (southward extent somewhat uncertain depending on how fast / far south the cold front pushes) on Sunday. With the front in the area and ample moisture south of the front, some diurnal convection will be possible during the day Sunday. A deeper wave moving through will bring higher rain chances early next week (especially Sunday night). Cooler temperatures will continue through early week. Mid to late week, the ridge tries to build into the area, though it appears we stay close enough to the edge of upper level flow to not discount all precipitation chances. Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for most sites through the period, though low chances (20-30%) for lowered category (due to thunderstorms) exist across western Oklahoma this evening. A weak front will continue pushing into portions of northern Oklahoma through this afternoon. After 20-21 UTC, widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along/near this feature. At this update, PROB30 groups were added at sites (WWR/CSM) where odds for impact/lowered category are highest. Convective concern should diminish shortly after sunset (~02-04 UTC), with additional low chances for a few showers into early Friday morning across northern Oklahoma. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 69 90 74 96 / 20 10 0 0 Hobart OK 70 96 75 101 / 20 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 71 96 75 98 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 65 96 72 99 / 30 30 20 10 Ponca City OK 66 90 73 98 / 10 10 20 10 Durant OK 69 91 73 93 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...34