538
FXUS63 KPAH 182301
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
601 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon, mainly over southwest Indiana and west Kentucky.

- Warmer temperatures return late this week and continue into
  the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90`s arrive Friday and
  continue through early next week.

- Chances of showers and storms return across the region Sunday
  and linger through next Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

An area of thunderstorms has developed over the Pennyrile and is
lifting/developing northward. With temperatures pushing 90 in
Evansville, expect the storms to continue northward through
southwest Indiana through sunset. Elsewhere, more isolated
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

Guidance is in pretty good agreement in building the upper ridge
westward by Wednesday, but considerable high cloud also
continues to stream north over the Quad state. So, the forecast
continues to be dry Wednesday, but high temperatures will only
be around 90.

The ridge will continue to build overhead achieving its greatest
strength Friday into Saturday. Guidance continues to flatten the
ridge substantially Sunday, leaving the Quad State on the
fringe of weak westerly flow aloft. Disturbances in the flow
will bring daily chances of thunderstorms Sunday through next
Tuesday. With little flow to organize convection, these storms
will generally be of the pulse variety and carry a torrential
rain, gusty wind, and lightning threat.

As for temperatures, highs will not reach the mid 90s until
Friday, but then mid to upper 90s will be the rule over the
weekend. Despite some minor boundaries working south into the
area, temperatures Monday and Tuesday remain in the lower to
middle 90s. It still appears that the humidity will not be a
huge factor during this hot spell, but heat indices will likely
reach 100 over some portion of the area each day Friday through
Tuesday. We will have to monitor trends closely for the
potential need to issue a Heat Advisory for all or a portion of
the Quad State at some point in this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to continue through the
TAF period. A few isolated showers are around the Quad State,
lingering through the evening. There are a couple storms likely
to stay east of the eastern sites like KOWB. Winds will be light
overnight and only increase to around 5-8 kts tomorrow out of
the south/southeast. High cloud coverage will decrease over
time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Wednesday night
     to midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Thursday night for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...ATL