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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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605 FXUS63 KPAH 170835 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Afternoon showers and storms possible today and on Tuesday. - Slightly cooler temperatures today through Wednesday followed by return of mid 90`s by late week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis this morning depicts a ridge of high pressure across the southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians. Lower heights were found across the southern plains where weak cyclonic flow was evident. An upper level wave/PV anomaly is expected to lift north from the northern GoM today with a 300-200mb jet streak providing increasing divergence aloft by the afternoon during peak heating. Scattered showers and storms will develop in response to increased ascent in a moist environment characterized by a plum of PW values in excess of 2 inches. The NBM/HREF both favor the western half of the PAH CWA for better PoPs (likely PoPs) which would include SE MO/SW IL/far W KY. This makes sense given the expected synoptic forcing and better low level moisture flux, although chances will exist across the rest of the area as well. Coverage should largely wane with loss of solar heating, although a healthy 20-30 knot 925-850 flow may feed isolated activity into the early overnight period. Moving into Tuesday, yet another wave/jet streak is progged to lift into the region providing ascent within a ribbon of high theta-e air. More showers and storms would be the result, although coverage may be a bit lower without any pronounced sfc convergence and increased heights as the center of the ridge moves into the Appalachians region. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler (compared to the past few days) with highs in the upper 80`s to lower 90`s. The upper ridge moves north a bit, expands and builds Wednesday into Thursday. This will increase heights across the region bringing drier weather, and an increase in temperatures especially late this week when the center of the ridge sets up across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures climb back into the 90`s this weekend with mid to upper 90`s certainly possible. Guidance continues to favor the ridge breaking down as lower heights move across the plains Sunday into early next week. This will bring chances of rain back into the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Cloud cover will be on the increase tonight through tomorrow, mainly mid to high cloud, but could be some cigs in the 4-5kft range tomorrow. Scattered convection is expected to develop during the afternoon on Monday, lingering into early evening. Can`t rule out some patchy fog tonight in areas that received a heavy downpour earlier today. Light S/SE winds tonight will pick up out of the south on Monday and may become gusty by afternoon around 15-20 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...SP