730
FXUS63 KPAH 171959
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A good chance of showers and storms through sunset, then
  lesser chances tonight and Tuesday.

- Temperatures will be at or a few degree above normal through
  Wednesday, then mid 90s return for Thursday into the weekend.

- A cold front could bring a decent chance of showers and storms
  to the region Sunday. Cooler temperatures would follow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

High pressure aloft centered along the Atlantic Coast will allow
weak disturbances to lift northward through the Quad State
through Tuesday. One such disturbance is helping a large cluster
of showers and thunderstorms to lift northward through
southeast Missouri this afternoon. Lesser disturbances will
keep showers in the forecast through the night in the east and
then more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms for
Tuesday.

For the rest of the afternoon, most guidance struggles to bodily
push the convection north and especially east through the entire
region, so similar to yesterday we will expect the precipitation
to become more scattered with time and northeastward extent.
Torrential downpours and lightning will be the primary concerns,
but a few stronger storms could produce some isolated 30-40 mph
winds.

Tonight, especially after midnight, the focus for showers shifts
over the Pennyrile and southwest Indiana. A thunderstorm will
remain possible, but it should mostly be showers. Widely
scattered showers and storms are expected in the heat of the day
Tuesday. A few stragglers may continue into Tuesday evening,
then we dry out for the rest of the week.

The upper high will build westward Wednesday into Thursday and
then linger overhead into Saturday. We will continue to see
partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday which will help to
hold the heat off for one more day. However, with full sunshine
Thursday through Saturday, the heat will definitely be on.
Expect high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s each
afternoon. Fortunately, it appears that dewpoints will be mixing
down into the middle 60s over much of the area each afternoon.
This should keep the humidity in check, with heat indices only a
degree or two higher than the temperatures. We will likely see
heat indices reach 100 in a few locations each afternoon, but it
may be limited enough in time and space to keep a Heat Advisory
from being issued. We will have to monitor trends in the
dewpoint guidance closely as we go through the week.

There is some light at the end of the tunnel. Most guidance
weakens the ridge and pushes a cold front through the region
Sunday. This would bring a decent chance of convection and
eventually some less hot air. Not sure how confident to be in
these trends, but will run with the consensus for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Another round of thunderstorms is lifting north toward KCGI and
KPAH, and should impact both terminals this afternoon with gusty
winds and MVFR to IFR conditions. The convection should
struggle to make it to the other sites this afternoon, but
isolated to scattered showers could impact KEVV and KOWB
tonight, into the morning hours. Outside of thunderstorms,
conditions should remain VFR. South winds will gust 15-20kts
throughout the region this afternoon or until thunderstorms
arrive.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS